Is the Automobile Industry the Next Bubble?

Posted on December 20, 2018 by duanetilden

Over the past year and recently there have been significant changes happening in the North American automotive sector. Other parts of the world have been ramping up the development of the Electric Vehicle, with a number of countries and cities proposing banning or limiting sales of fossil fueled powered vehicles to meet future Climate Accord CO2 emission reductions.

World wide we see that auto manufacturers are making the switch over to the development of the EV which will eventually replace the ICE (Internal Combustion Engine).

Industry involvement in promoting electric vehicles

“To meet future demand for EVs, auto manufacturers need to plan and gear up for the relevant changes to design and manufacturing processes. Normally, government calls for reduced vehicle emissions are met with resistance from the private sector. According to Winfried Hermann, transport minister for Stuttgart, “We say, clean up your technology, they say it is impossible.”^[5] Nevertheless, many automakers are now planning to sell most of their vehicle fleet in electric versions. According to Volvo’s CEO, the manufacturer aims for 50 percent of sales to be fully electric by 2025.^[6]

Other companies including BMW and Renault have committed to significant increases in EV production in the next two years and plan on a full transition in the near future. The PSA Group, which owns Peugeot and Citroen, stated its intentions to electrify 80 percent of its fleet for production by 2023, and Toyota is manufacturing its first fully electrified Prius to meet California’s updated vehicle standards for 2020.^[7] Toyota also announced it will be adding more than 10 EV models by the early 2020s, and has partnered with Panasonic to develop a new EV battery.^[8] Companies that have already produced fully electrified cars, such as Nissan, are setting the pace by providing more variety to make EVs appealing to consumers with diverse needs. Aston Martin, Jaguar, and Land Rover, producers of luxury cars, have also spoken publicly about their company goals to move toward electrifying vehicles.^[9] German-owned makers of Rolls-Royce and Mini Cooper vehicles plan to bring 25 electric models to market by 2025, in line with the goals that several European countries have targeted for the end of new ICE vehicle sales.^[8] Additionally, they hope to stay ahead of shifting market demands and the impending European target goals by increasing research and development spending to 7 billion euros.^[8] The largest auto manufacturer in Europe, Volkswagen, has pledged 20 billion euros for its electric car program, and its luxury brand Porsche, in collaboration with Audi, will release 20 electrified models by 2025.^{[8] […]”}

One recent report details statistics provided by the US EPA, where 15% of man-made carbon emissions are produced by the transportation sector, and the US transportation represents 27% of national carbon emissions.

Technological developments in renewable energy, energy storage and batteries, autonomous vehicles, Internet of Things, materials, and many other nascent and emerging sectors. Changes in society as more people congregate in cities while the baby boomer generation are departing from the consumer sector, and emerging Millenials are making new choices in spending and interaction with the world.

Utility To Replace N-Gas Peaker Plants With Energy Storage

Posted on November 10, 2018 by duanetilden

Duane M. Tilden, P.Eng                          November 10, 2018

The main caveat of Energy Efficiency is to do more with less. Energy Efficiency is low-lying fruit, easy to harvest. For utilities and the grid there are many advancements coming that will allow us to enable a more resilient and sustainable electrical transmission system connecting providers, consumers, and prosumers.

Electricity Prosumers & Renewable Energy

“Active energy consumers, often called ‘prosumers’ because they both consume and produce electricity, could dramatically change the electricity system. Various types of prosumers exist: residential prosumers who produce electricity at home – mainly through solar photovoltaic panels on their rooftops, citizen-led energy cooperatives or housing associations, commercial prosumers whose main business activity is not electricity production, and public institutions like schools or hospitals. The rise in the number of prosumers has been facilitated by the fall in the cost of renewable energy technologies, especially solar panels, which in some Member States produce electricity at a cost that is the same or lower than retail prices.” (1)

What is a Peaker Plant?

“Peaking power plants, also known as peaker plants, and occasionally just “peakers”, are power plants that generally run only when there is a high demand, known as peak demand, for electricity.^[1]^[2] Because they supply power only occasionally, the power supplied commands a much higher price per kilowatt hour than base load power. Peak load power plants are dispatched in combination with base load power plants, which supply a dependable and consistent amount of electricity, to meet the minimum demand.” (2)

As more renewable energy projects are added to provided base load power, in an absence of electricity when renewable sources of electricity are inactive a greater reliance is put on peaker plants to make up energy shortfall . However, as improvements in energy storage solutions gain traction through capacity and competitive costing it is now possible to replace fossil fuel powered peaker plants with energy storage.

Public Utilities Commission of the State of California (CPUC)

In a recent decision the State of California has proceeded with plans to develop and procure electrical storage solutions for the Public Utility as an alternative to aging natural gas peaker plants. A net reduction in carbon emissions by eliminating fossil fuel consumption.

Energy Storage California 2018

Table 1 – Summary of Pacific Gas and Electric’s (PG&E’s) energy storage power purchase
agreements (PPAs)

“Approval of PG&E’s landmark energy storage solicitation is the most significant example to date of batteries taking the place of fossil fuel generation on the power grid.

Energy storage has helped decrease the California’s reliance on gas for years, particularly since 2016, when regulators ordered accelerated battery procurements to counteract the closure of a natural gas storage facility outside Los Angeles.

The PG&E projects, however, are the first time a utility and its regulators have sought to directly replace multiple major power plants with battery storage.

The projects would take the place of three plants owned by generator Calpine — the 580 MW Metcalf plant and the Feather River and Yuba City generators, both 48 MW.

Calpine and the California ISO last year asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to approve reliability-must-run (RMR) contracts for the plants, arguing they are essential to maintain power reliability. The one-year contracts would see California ratepayers finance the continued operation of the generators, which are losing money in the ISO’s wholesale market.

FERC approved the request in April, but California regulators were already planning for when the plants retire. In January, they ordered PG&E to seek alternatives to the generators, writing that the lack of competition in RMR contracts could mean higher prices for customers. ” (4)

References:

Energy Efficiency of Power Production: How Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Turbines Operate

Posted on September 1, 2018 by duanetilden

Duane M. Tilden, P.Eng.                                    Sept 1, 2018

Foreword:

This is another article in an ongoing series of reports on the technological development of supercritical carbon dioxide in the power production and energy efficiency sectors of industry, power plants and utilities.

dodge-sco23 supercritical CO2 turbine

Figure 1. Size comparison of Supercritical Power Turbine to Conventional Steam Turbine (1)

Abstract:

The ever increasing search for improving energy and power production efficiency is a natural quest as developments in technology seek to be utilized to improve operations and supply cost effectively. The technologies behind the utilization of supercritical carbon dioxide and other such fluids have long been established. We are furthering our exploration into this sector of power production developing new technologies along the way to a smarter economy and modernization of infrastructure.

The Principle of Operation

Supercritical fluids can play an important role in developing better electricity generators because of their liquid- and gas-like properties. A supercritical fluid is an optimal working fluid because it has a temperature and pressure above its critical point, meaning that it doesn’t have a definite liquid or gas phase. Consequently, the slightest changes in pressure or temperature cause huge changes in the material’s density.

With any supercritical fluid, the ease of compressibility goes up, explains Stapp, so it becomes something more like water. Because supercritical CO2 also compresses more easily than steam, the amount of work done during the compression phase—normally accounting for 25 percent of the work performed inside the system—is dramatically reduced; the energy saved there greatly contributes to the turbine’s overall efficiency.

“We expand it like a gas, and pressurize it like a liquid,” says James Pasch, principle investigator of the Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Brayton Cycle Research and Development Program. “You can do this with any fluid, but supercritical carbon dioxide matches really well with ambient temperatures.”

Carbon dioxide is optimal for this application because it doesn’t go through a phase change at any point during the cycle. Its critical temperature, 88 degrees Fahrenheit, is very close to ambient temperature, which means the heat emitted by the turbine is the same temperature as the surrounding environment. Supercritical carbon dioxide is also very dense; at its critical point, the fluid is about half the density of water. So, in addition to being easier to compress, less work is required to cycle it back to the heat source for re-expansion.

The Brayton Cycle also offers direct environmental benefits. For one, it’s carbon neutral. The system takes carbon dioxide out of the air and puts it in the recompression cycle loop. Just as important is the fact that the system limits water usage by minimizing discharge, evaporation, and withdraw.

“That’s a big deal for the southwest,” says Gary Rochau, manager of Sandia’s Advanced Nuclear Concepts Department. Sandia’s generator can work in places where water is in limited supply. This puts it on par with the Palo Verde Nuclear Power Generating Station, a nuclear power plant in Arizona that uses recycled waste water as cooling water, saving groundwater and municipal water supplies for other uses. (2)

Figure 1. Illustration of a Supercritical CO2 Turbine [Peregrine Turbine Technologies] (2)

Advances in Materials and Technology

GE Reports first wrote about Hofer last year when he 3D printed a plastic prototype of the turbine. His team, partnered with Southwest Research Institute and Gas Technology Institute, has since submitted the design to the U.S. Department of Energy and won an $80 million award to build the 10 MW turbine. The turbine features a rotor that is 4.5 feet long, 7 inches in diameter, and only weighs 150 pounds. The engineers are now completing a scaled-down, 1 MW version of the machine and will test it in July at the Southwest Research Institute.

The idea of using CO2 to power a steam turbine has been around for a while. It first appeared in the late 1960s, and an MIT doctoral student resurrected it in 2004. “The industry has been really interested in the potential benefits of using CO2 in place of steam in advanced supercritical power plants,” Hofer says.

By “supercritical” Hofer means efficient power stations using CO2 squeezed and heated so much that it becomes a supercritical fluid, which behaves like a gas and a liquid at the same time. The world’s most efficient thermal power plant, RDK 8 in Germany, uses an “ultrasupercritical” steam turbine operating at 600 degrees Celsius and pressure of 4,000 pounds per square inch, more than what’s exerted when a bullet strikes a solid object.

Hofer says that the steam power plant technology “has been on a continuous march” to increase efficiency and steam temperature, but once it tops 700 degrees Celsius, “the CO2 cycle becomes more efficient than the steam cycle.” Hofer’s turbine and casing are made from a nickel-based superalloy because it can handle temperatures as high as 715 degrees Celsius and pressures approaching 3,600 pounds per square inch. “You need a high-strength material for a design like this,” he says.

Figure 2. GE Global Research engineer Doug Hofer is building a compact and highly efficient turbine that fits on a conference table but can generate 10 megawatts (MW), enough to power 10,000 U.S. homes. The turbine, made from a nickel-based superalloy that can handle temperatures up to 715 degrees Celsius and pressures approaching 3,600 pounds per square inch, replaces steam with ultrahot and superpressurized carbon dioxide, allowing for a smaller design.

The hellish heat and pressure turn CO2 into a hot, dense liquid, allowing Hofer to shrink the turbine’s size and potentially increase its efficiency a few percentage points above where state-of-the-art steam systems operate today. “The pressure and fluid density at the exit of our turbine is two orders of magnitude higher than in a steam turbine,” Hofer says. “Therefore, to push the same mass through, you can have a much smaller turbine because the flow at the exit end is much denser.”

Hofer’s design uses a small amount of CO2 in a closed loop. “It’s important to remember that this is not a CO2 capture or sequestration technology,” he says. Hofer says that the technology, which is being developed as part of GE’s Ecomagination program, could one day start replacing steam turbines. “It’s on the multigenerational roadmap for steam-powered systems,” he says.

By virtue of becoming more efficient, the technology could help power-plant operators reduce greenhouse gas emissions. “The efficiency of converting coal into electricity matters: more efficient power plants use less fuel and emit less climate-damaging carbon dioxide,” wrote the authors of the International Energy Agency report on measuring coal plant performance. (3)

Previous Blog Posts on Supercritical Carbon Dioxide:

References:

Banning the Internal Combustion Engine: Is this the end of Fossil Fuels?

Posted on April 20, 2018 by duanetilden

As a general rule I find that most North Americans are unaware that there is a growing movement of countries that are banning new sales of vehicles powered by gasoline or diesel and may also include other fuels such as propane, compressed and LNG (liquid natural gas).

The local news is rife with plans to grow our exploitation of natural resources and build more pipelines for anticipated expansion to new markets such as China. The federal government is in the process of colluding with the petroleum industry to force the construction of a dil-bit pipeline in a densely populated region of Greater Vancouver. Meanwhile our future markets are vanishing as other governments are phasing out fossil fuels and their engines.

Image #1: A rendering of the Silent Utility Rover Universal Superstructure (SURUS) platform with truck chassis.

SURUS was designed to form a foundation for a family of commercial vehicle solutions that leverages a single propulsion system integrated into a common chassis. (1)

Fuel cell technology is a key piece of GM’s zero-emission strategy.

General Motors’ Silent Utility Rover Universal Superstructure (SURUS) is an electric vehicle platform with autonomous capabilities powered by a flexible fuel cell. GM displayed it at the fall meeting of the Association of the United States Army, as the commercially designed platform could be adapted for military use.

SURUS leverages GM’s newest Hydrotec fuel cell system, autonomous capability and truck chassis components to deliver high-performance, zero-emission propulsion to minimize logistical burdens and reduce human exposure to harm. Benefits include quiet and odor-free operation, off-road mobility, field configuration, instantaneous high torque, exportable power generation, water generation and quick refueling times. (1)

Table 1. List of Countries Banning the ICE & Timeline (2)
Wikipedia Table of Countries Banning the Internal Combustion Engine.png

At an automotive conference in Tianjin, China revealed it was developing plans towards banning fossil fuel-based cars. Though China has not set a 2040 goal like the U.K. and France, it said it was working with other regulators on a time-specific ban.

“The ministry has also started relevant research and will make such a timeline with relevant departments. Those measures will certainly bring profound changes for our car industry’s development,” Xin Guobin, the vice minister of industry and information technology, said.

Both India and Norway have also said they have electric car targets set for the next few decades. India, home to heavily polluted cities, said by 2030 it plans to have vehicles solely powered by electricity. (3)

Final Remarks:

I explain this worldwide movement to the electric vehicle and the impact this will have oil markets, however, most of whom I discuss this issue with are unaware of these vital facts. In addition we are seeing growing alternate forms of power sources for our electrical grid, such as solar, wind, tidal, hydro-electric, geothermal and others.

If you ran a business that called for a major investments in capital for infrastructure, would you make it knowing that your market is non-existent? Maybe it’s time for Canadians and Americans to wake up and smell the coffee.

References:

Solar and Energy Storage Set New Lows For Electricity Price in 2017

Posted on December 5, 2017 by duanetilden

The year started with a solar-plus-storage record: AES inked a contract for a Kauai project at 11 cents per kilowatt-hour. The facility will combine 28 megawatts of solar photovoltaic capacity with 20 megawatts of five-hour duration batteries, producing 11 percent of the island’s electricity.

That project managed to outsize an earlier Tesla/SolarCity deal on the island and shave a few cents off the unit price. In May, another project made this one look like an appetizer.

Tucson Electric Power contracted with NextEra Energy Resources to build out a major solar-plus storage project at a 20-year PPA rate below 4.5 cents per kilowatt-hour. The facility will pair 100 megawatts of solar generation with a 30 megawatt/ 120 megawatt-hour storage system. (That’s as big as the AES Escondido system, which was the largest of its kind until Tesla outdid it in Australia).

That announcement turned heads and set of a flurry of number crunching, as analysts and rivals tried to unpack how such a low price could be possible. The investment tax credit plays a role, as does NextEra’s ability to source equipment at aggressive price points.

Crucially, this is happening in sunny Arizona, where the abundance of solar generation is creating value for dispatchable power. Storage thrives when its flexibility is compensated, and Arizona’s regulated utilities can do just that.

Full Story at: top-10-energy-storage-stories-of-2017

Are Cryptocurrencies a Fad or a Revolution in Finance?

Posted on November 6, 2017 by duanetilden

Duane M. Tilden, P.Eng
November 5, 2017

As I was walking to my weekly bridge game at the local club, I was pondering my newfound interest in cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Ethereum, the block chain, and related topics such as mining, smart contracts, ICO’s; the list goes on. I also thought about the value of things from my childhood, like marbles, hockey and baseball trading cards, comic books, coins, stamps, post cards, and other things that I have collected. All which created markets and gained extrinsic value over time, and could be held speculatively. I then asked myself, “Are cryptocurrencies a passing fad or here to stay?”

What Makes a Currency Valuable?

Some things, such as coins may be made of a valuable base metal alloy, like gold, silver, nickel and copper. Coins are currency, and as such a perfect example to assessing intrinsic value and extrinsic value. In the past coins were minted with higher contents of the base metal alloys. The metal content gave them an intrinsic value due to the metals rarity and utility. In time, these metals gained value, to the point where it cost more to mint a coin than it was worth. People would then begin to horde or “mine” the coin for its intrinsic value which was greater than it’s face value as a currency.

metcalfe_curve

Figure 1. The Metcalfe Curve (1)

Extrinsic value, however, could be likened to what we would consider the “fiat” aspect of a currency. As currencies have moved away from a gold or silver standard, the value of money is largely based on consensus. Markets are also consensus driven, without a universal agreement or set of rules, there could not be trade. This is the reason for the development for money or currency. I work and get paid in the common unit of currency, which I can then use to buy and rent goods and services.

Currency and Security

Until recent developments, Governments and their agencies in partnership with banking institutions have generally controlled currency and financial markets. The operation of the economy is the basis upon which society functions. Money exchanges hands for goods and services, including wages. One currency usually denominates value in a physical market. However, these markets can be subject to various forms of attack or manipulation. Physical money could be counterfeited, transfer of money and assets could be lost or stolen, other forms of fraud could occur where one loses their assets.

Another form of attack is personal, or on the individual. Local regulations and taxation laws require valuation of assets and income which are held by the individual to be known to the public agency and could be subject to economic deprivation and restrictions. This is an instance where individual privacy is violated in built-in, systemic and semi-transparent.

Examples of this are everywhere, such as income tax, sales tax, medical tax, alimony and child-support, retirement and pension plans, insurance. If you owe the government money in a disputed case, they often will violate an individuals rights to deprive them of assets, such as money in bank accounts, garnishee of wages directly from the employer, denial of services, loss of principal residence and other such actions.

Most of the money that we earn, own, or spend is being tracked by the government. There are lots of taxes and lots of “rules” made by the big boys. Unfortunately, the present financial system is often disadvantaging us. Why? Because it often collects more than it provides. (2)

Consensus and Fiat Money

Since a currency in today’s world generally consists of a consensus agreeing in a trading market place, then the truth is anything can have value. As the internet has opened up trading across international borders, and companies have sprung up in the financial market place to provide services beyond their physical location, often catering to the world. I can purchase electronics from China and have them delivered to Canada on eBay, using PayPal or a credit card to exchange in their accepted currency. Buy and sell ads have sprung up, such as Craigslist and Kijiji , allowing wider ranging access to markets at a greatly reduced costs as compared to paper advertising in magazines.

Computer users over time had an edge over non-users, as information became available in a vast manner over greater areas. Shopping for the best price of a desired item, good or service can be searched for on my laptop and obtained at a fair cost. No longer does one have to go out and purchase a paper magazine or ad book, in their search. We now can now open a browser on our computer, or digital device, ask a question on a search engine and sort through a selection of answers. Phone numbers, addresses, reviews, prices, hours of operation, names of staff, job openings and more information is all available quickly and efficiently.

Enter the Bitcoin, blockchains and crypto-currencies. In one report recently obtained, sourced from the international Engineering Firm ARUP (2) it has been stated about Bitcoin, a technology introduced by Satoshi Nakomoto.

At the start of 2009,when the world was in the middle of a major financial crisis, a paradigm shift in technology quietly made its debut. That technology is called Bitcoin, and it’s the biggest innovation in finance in 500 years, and certainly the greatest invention of the 21st century so far. (3)

Cryptocurrencies Create Markets

Beyond creating an anonymous system of financial transactions and storage, crypto-currencies are creating new markets of value and trade. There has been a recent wave of new crypto-currencies coming on the market, most of which have issued whitepapers, and have sales landing pages which outline the details about structure, their markets or business plan, how to participate, and their projected timeline.

In my opinion, issuing tokens for sale is very similar to crowd-funding, which may also be likened to buying or selling shares on the stock market, without the restrictions or regulations necessarily placed on participants. Whether or not these activities are legal may depend on local jurisdictions. However, as long as no laws are broken for the purposes of making transactions in a business manner, or the proposed ecosystem, then personal privacy of participants and security should be secured to all qualified participants, which are traits of a crypto-currency like the original Bitcoin.

The tokens offered in the pre-ICO sales are generally intended to fund the business operations, which, if all goes well, will turn a profit and be able to provide token based services. Details of the venture and how proceeds from projected profits are to be distributed are usually outlined in the white paper. Tokens may be able to be openly traded as a currency, depending on various applicable rules and regulations which may apply and being able to be listed on the various exchanges.

For example a current energy token on the market, PowerLedger.io (4) – is a blockchain-based peer-to-peer energy trading platform enabling consumers and businesses to sell their surplus solar power to their neighbours without a middleman.

<From a Media Press Release> Power Ledger is based in Perth and uses blockchain technology to allow households to trade excess solar power over the electricity network.

Major Australian power retailer Origin Energy recently announced a three-month trial with Power Ledger to explore the benefits and challenges of peer-to-peer energy trading across a regulated network.

“Blockchain technology and cryptocurrency underpins our business offering and we are excited to be working with Perth-based DigitalX” said Power Ledger Chair Dr Jemma Green.

POWR tokens will be offered via the Ethereum cryptocurrency network in an uncapped price offer, meaning the tokens’ final price will be determined by the market demand.

“POWR will be the Ethereum blockchain protocol token required throughout the Power Ledger eco-system that can be converted to ‘Sparkz’, which is the crypto-currency we have set up for users to trade electricity using the platform,” said Dr Green.

As part of the engagement,DigitalX will introduce cryptocurrency investors to Power Ledger in exchange for a fee which consists of a mix of Ether (ETH) and POWR tokens.

“Blockchain-enabled innovation is disrupting traditional industries and digital currency is changing the way companies access capital. DigitalX is pleased to be able to facilitate this quantum shift in traditional mechanisms for accessing funding,” said Mr Travers. (5)

Generally speaking, however, most crypto-currencies will have many advantages over fiat currency or stock markets. For one, their trade is not restricted to one market, or country to operate. Beyond anonymity one can store value in one token, exchange it for another, buy services on a network, or hold it speculatively. There are the other aspects related to smart contracts and the block-chain where physical assets or other attributes, such as counting operations of a machine or device can be linked to a token. In fact the possibilities seem endless, only bounded by the limits of imagination.

Cryptocurrency Offerings and Exchanges

Every day I receive more notifications regarding new offerings on a multiple of news feeds. Many of these offerings look good and viable. There are many new white-papers to read, and some are quite technically advanced and detailed in outlook and projections. As more cryptocurrencies are introduced into markets and traded on platforms investments will be expected to continue.

As cryptocurrencies are rapidly gaining acceptance and appeal, the task of evaluating all emerging offerings would be odious without methods of categorization, comparison and establishing legitimacy. At this time, according to the coinmarketcap.com, there are 1257 Cryptocurrencies with a total market cap of $199 Billion USD currently listed on exchanges. Currently there are 121 active exchanges trading cryptocurrencies (5) and in the last 24 hours there was a “volume of 614,489 BTC and $4,396,051,516 on 5915 trading pairs” (6).

Other resources of current token or coin offerings and other related information can be found on various websites, including tokenmarket.net and coinranking.com.

The Future of Cryptocurrency

At the current pace of innovation, new offerings, and investment as determined by market capitalization, it does not appear that current rapid growth in cryptocurrencies slow down. Rather, examining current trends in cryptocurrency and comparing to models, it appears that we are in the innovation and early adoption phases of a technological innovation, as seen in figure 2. (7)

TechAdoptCurve2

Figure 2. Technological Adoption Curve (7)

In addition to the known bell curve of adoption, the value of the networks being formed on the internet, obeys Metcalfe’s law, see figure 1.

Metcalfe’s law states that the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n²).

As we can surmise from the effect of Metcalfe’s law as it applies to the development of cryptocurrencies is that we are currently in the earlier phases of value development, which will be expected to grow at an exponential rate associated with a nodal peer to peer model.

Two telephones can make only one connection, five can make 10 connections, and twelve can make 66 connections.

For innovators and early adopters these are exciting times as the number of participants continue to grow, and more capital continues to be invested in fledgling commercial enterprises. New business plans for ICO and Token issues are being issued every day. There are technical developments coming, apps, games, lenders and financial instruments, as well as new types of Tokens being issued with a variety of proof’s or calculation methods. Blockchains technology is changing to become increasingly efficient to handle ever increasing numbers of transactions. At this time there appears to be no limit to the possible applications of blockchain technology.

combined_curve

Figure 3. Combined Curve – Crossing the Chasm (1)

[…] The combination of Moore’s and Metcalfe’s laws explains the rise of information technology and the growth of the Internet as we know it today. […] And finally, in an unprecedented apotheosis, by combining the three preceding charts and by ― I have to admit ― visually cheating with axes, scales, and representations I came to the observation that the chasm is actually the point where the transition from a technology driven business to a value driven business needs to take place ― and if this doesn’t happen, that any new product or technology introduction is doomed to fail.

Disclaimers:

Expect that there are traps and pitfalls, some ventures may be fraudulent or simply fail. No guarantees on individual outcomes of ICO’s or other value propositions, and, as in all markets expect that there will be both successes and failures.

Expect, in various regions, government control and regulation, which may attempt to prevent or limit participation by populations or otherwise affect and manipulate markets.

Every participant in any new market, such as a cryptocurrency, is advised to perform their own due diligence and research before investing capital.

No guarantees or warrantees are implied or expressed by the author, who, may at any time, hold vested interests in a variety of cryptocurrency tokens for speculation or other purposes.

End

References

Microgrid as a Service (MaaS) and the Blockchain

Posted on October 17, 2017 by duanetilden

It is a splendid event to observe when two new technologies combine to create a new marketplace. In recent years as new sources of distributed energy have been entering the electrical grid to provide power they are necessitating a change to the existing large-scale infrastructure model of power supply.

Classic Electric Power Grid Model

Figure 1. Classic electric power grid model with bulk generators transferring power long distances to reach the consumer. Image courtesy of NetGain Energy Advisors. (1)

The old model utility was large and centralized and tracking transactions was simple as consumers were on one side of the ledger, while the provider as on the other. And whereby currency and energy flowed only in opposite directions between two identified parties, consumer and provider.

In the emerging markets of small-scale independent energy providers, we can see buildings, communities and even individual residences having built capacity to provide intermittently or on demand power at times, and consume or store power from the grid at other times. Solar power is only available during the day, and will require new commercial methods of energy storage.

How-Microgrids-Work

Figure 2. An example Microgrid (2)

In the transition from decentralized utility is the development of the Micro-grid. The Micro-grid offers many benefits to society, including; (a) use of renewable energy sources that reduce or eliminate the production of GHG’s, (b) increases in energy efficiency of energy transmission due to shortening of transmission distances and infrastructure, (c) improved municipal resilience against disaster and power reductions, and finally, (d) promotion of economic activity that improves universal standard of living.

As buildings and communities evolve they are moving toward renewable energy sources to supplement their energy requirements and reduce operating costs. Even the building codes are getting into the act, requiring buildings be constructed to new energy efficiency standards. Also, we are seeing the development of new technologies and business methods, such as solar powered charging stations for electric vehicles.

The existing electrical grid and utility model has to develop and adapt to these new technologies and means of locally generating power. The future will include the development and incorporation of peer to peer networks and alternative energy supply methods. Consumers may purchase power from multiple sources, and produce power and supply it to other users via the electrical grid.

Micro-grid and the Blockchain

As new energy sources/providers emerge there is added complexity to the network. Consumers of power can also be an energy providers, as well as having different energy sources available. This increased functionality raises the complexity of possible transactions in the network.

Imagine a financial ledger, where each user in the system is no longer constrained to be a consumer, but also a supplier to other users in the system. In order to track both the credits and debits it has been proposed that the exchange of blockchain tokens be utilized to sort out complicated energy transfer transactions in a distributed P2P network.

P2P TRADING

This class of Platform Application gives retailers the ability to empower consumers (or in an unregulated environment, the consumers themselves) to simply trade electricity with one another and receive payment in real-time from an automated and trustless reconciliation and settlement system. There are many other immediate benefits such as being able to select a clean energy source, trade with neighbors, receive more money for excess power, benefit from transparency of all your trades on a blockchain and very low-cost settlement costs all leading to lower power bills and improved returns for investments in distributed renewables. (3)

One blockchain based energy token that has caught my attention is called POWR and is currently in pre-ICO sales of the tokens by the Australian platform Power Ledger. One of the uses of the platform that is being suggested is peer to peer trading.

“We are absolutely thrilled with the results of the public presale,” says Dr Jemma Green, co-founder and chair of Power Ledger. “Selling out in just over 3 days is a very strong performance in line with global ICO standards, which speaks to the strong levels of interest from consumer and institutional buyers.”

The proceeds from the total pre sale were AU$17 million and the main sale on Friday offers approximately 150 million POWR tokens (subject to final confirmation before the sale opens) in an uncapped sale, meaning that the level of market demand will have set the final token price at the end of the sale. (4)

References

Sustainable Smart Cities and Disaster Mitigation – Preparing for the 1000 Year Storm

Posted on September 24, 2017 by duanetilden

Hurricanes Cause Massive Damage

In light of recent events, such as the current hurricane season of 2017 which has already struck large sections of Texas with Hurricane Harvey causing massive damage which has been estimated at $180 billion by Texas Governor Greg Abbott (1) there are questions about how we can prepare cities better for disaster. One method considered is in our building codes, which are constantly being upgraded and improved, by constructing buildings to be more resilient and handle harsher conditions.

There is a limit to what a building code can do and enforce. Areas and regions that have seen widespread destruction, will have to be rebuilt. However, to what standards? The existing building codes will have to be examined for their efficacy in storm-proofing buildings to withstand the effects of high winds and water penetration, some of which has already been performed.

Codes do not prevent external disasters such as from storms, tornadoes, tidal waves (tsunami), earthquakes, forest fire, lightning, landslides, nuclear melt-down and other extreme natural and man-made events. What building codes do is establish minimum standards of construction for various types of buildings and structures. Damage to buildings, vehicles, roads, power systems and other components of a city’s infrastructure are vulnerable to flooding which cannot be addressed in a building code. Other standards are needed to address this problem.

Storm-Proofing Cities

Other issues arise regarding flooding, and how water can be better managed in the future to mitigate water collection and drainage. These may require higher levels of involvement across a community and perhaps beyond municipal constraints, requiring state-wide developments. Breakwaters, sea walls, levees, spill ways and other forms of structures may be added to emergency pumping stations and micro-grid generator/storage facilities as examples of infrastructure improvements that could be utilized.

Bigger decisions may have to be considered as to the level of reconstruction of buildings in vulnerable areas. Sea warming as noted occurring has some scientists pondering if there is a connection between global warming and increased storm volatility as indicated by water temperature rises and tidal records (2). If bigger and more frequent storms are to come, then it must be considered in future building and infrastructure planning.

Regional Infrastructure and Resiliency

Exposed regions as well as larger, regional concerns in areas of maintaining power, roadways, and diverting and draining water are major in the resiliency of a community. When a social network breaks down, there is much lost, and recovery of a region can be adversely affected by loss of property and work.

Many of the lower classes will not have insurance and lose everything. Sick and elderly can be especially exposed, not having means to prepare or escape an oncoming disaster, and many will likely perish unless they can get access to aide or a shelter quickly.

Constructing better sea walls and storm surge barriers may be an effective means to diverting water in the event of a hurricane on densely populated coastal areas. Although considered costly to construct, they are a fraction of the cost of damage that may be caused by a high, forceful storm surge which can obliterate large unprotected populated areas. The Netherlands and England have made major advancements in coastal preparedness for storms.

Storm Surge Barriers

Overall Effectiveness for Reducing Flood Damage

There are only a few storm surge barriers in the United States, although major systems installed abroad demonstrate their efficacy. The Eastern Scheldt barrier in the Netherlands (completed in 1986) and the Thames barrier in the United Kingdom (completed in 1982) have prevented major flooding. Lavery and Donovan (2005) note that the Thames barrier, part of a flood risk reduction system of barriers, floodgates, floodwalls, and embankments, has reliably protected the City of London from North Sea storm surge since its completion.

Four storm surge barriers were constructed by the USACE in New England in the 1960s (Fox Point, Stamford, New Bedford, and Pawcatuck) and a fifth in 1986 in New London, Connecticut. The barriers were designed after a series of severe hurricanes struck New England in 1938, 1944, and 1954 (see Appendix B), which highlighted the vulnerability of the area. The 1938 hurricane damaged or destroyed 200,000 buildings and caused 600 fatalities (Morang, 2007; Pielke et al., 2008).

The 2,880-ft (878-m) Fox Point Barrier (Figure 1-8) stretches across

the Providence River, protecting downtown Providence, Rhode Island. The barrier successfully prevented a 2-ft (0.6-m) surge elevation (in excess of tide elevation) from Hurricane Gloria in 1985 and a 4-ft (1.2-m) surge from Hurricane Bob in 1991 (Morang, 2007) and was also used during Hurricane Sandy. The New Bedford, Massachusetts, Hurricane Barrier consists of a 4,500-ft-long (1372-m) earthen levee with a stone cap to an elevation of 20 ft (6 m), with a 150-ft-wide (46-m) gate for navigation. The barrier was reportedly effective during Hurricane Bob (1991), an unnamed coastal storm in 1997 (Morang, 2007), and Hurricane Sandy. During Hurricane Sandy, the peak total height of water (tide plus storm surge) was 6.8 feet (2.1 m), similar to the levels reached in 1991 and 1997. The Stamford, Connecticut, Hurricane Barrier has experienced six storms producing a surge of 9.0 ft (2.7 m) or higher between its completion (1969) and Hurricane Sandy. During Hurricane Sandy, the barrier experienced a storm surge of 11.1 ft (3.4 m), exceeding that of the 1938 hurricane (USACE, 2012). (3)

The biggest challenge is to build storm surge barriers large enough for future Hurricanes. There is a question that given the magnitude of current and future storms that these constructed barriers may be breached. Engineers design structures to meet certain standards, and with weather these were the unlikely 1 in 100 year storm events. However, this standard is not good enough as Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana exemplified, as being rated a 1 in 250 year storm event. With climate changes these events may become more frequent.

Much of the damage from Katrina came not from high winds or rain but from storm surge that caused breaches in levees and floodwalls, pouring water into 80 percent of New Orleans. To the south, Katrina flooded all of St. Bernard Parish and the east bank of Plaquemines Parish. Plaquemines Parish flooded again in 2012 with Hurricane Isaac.

Soon after Katrina, Congress directed the Corps of Engineers to build a system that could protect against a storm that has a 1 percent chance of happening each year, a “1-in-100-year” storm.

The standard is less a measure of safety and more a benchmark that allows the city to be covered by the National Flood Insurance Program. Louisiana’s master coastal plan calls for a much stronger 500-year system. The corps says Katrina was a 250-year storm for the New Orleans area.

Since 2005, the Army Corps has revamped the storm protection system’s 350 miles of levees and floodwalls, 73 pumping stations, three canal-closure structures, and four gated outlets. The corps built a much-heralded 26-foot-high, 1.8-mile surge barrier in Lake Borgne, about 12 miles east of the center of the city.

During Katrina, a 15- to 16-foot-high storm surge in Lake Borgne forced its way into the Intracoastal Waterway, putting pressure on the Industrial Canal levees that breached and caused catastrophic flooding in the city’s Lower 9th Ward.

“In New Orleans, we know that no matter how high we build this or how wide we build it, eventually there will be a storm that’s able to overtop it,” New Orleans District Army Corps spokesman Ricky Boyett says, admiring the immense surge barrier from a boat on Lake Borgne. “What we want is this to be a strong structure that will be able to withstand that with limited to no damage from the overtopping.” (4)

500 Year Floods

Hurricane Harvey brought an immense amount of extreme rain, which brought a record 64″ in one storm to the Houston metropolitan region. This is a staggering amount of water, over 5 feet in height, this amount of water could only overwhelm low-lying areas, and depressions in topography. Flash floods can happen during extreme storms, where a drainage system is designed for a 1:100 year flood event, and not for a 1:500 or 1:1000 year flood event. Road ways can easily become rivers as drainage systems back up and surface water has no place to collect.

500-year-floods

Figure 1. 500 year flood events in the USA since 2015 (5)

New standards in development may need to accommodate more stringent standards. Existing municipal drainage systems are not designed to handle extreme rain and other means of drainage systems may have to be developed to divert water away from centers of population. Communities will be built to new standards, where storm water management is given a higher priority to avert flooding.

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Figure 2. Floodwaters from Tropical Storm Harvey (6)

Given the future uncertainty of our climate and weather, we cannot continue to ignore the devastating effects that disasters have on cities and regions. We must ask some difficult questions regarding the intelligence of continuing to build and live in increasingly higher risk regions.

On a personal level every citizen must take some responsibility in their choices of where to live. As for governments they need to decide how best to allocate limited resources in rebuilding and upgrading storm protection systems. It is anticipated that some areas will be abandoned as risks become too high for effective protection from future storm events.

The Oil and Gas Industry

It seems there is an irony involved with the possibility that storms severity is linked to global warming, and that access to vulnerable regions often are in part economically driven by the oil and gas industry. Hurricane Harvey is the most recent storm which is affecting fuel prices across the USA. Refinery capacity has shrunk due to plant shut-downs. Shortages in local fuel supplies are occurring, as remaining gasoline stations run dry.

Goldman Sachs estimates that the hurricane has taken 3 million barrels a day — or about 17% — of refining capacity offline, and that’s likely to increase the overall level of crude-oil inventories over the next couple of months. (7)

Oil and gas are particularly vulnerable to exposure to the weather, and it is in their own best interests to provide local protection to the area so that they can continue extracting the resource. However, ancillary industries such as refining may better be served by relocation away from danger areas. Also, supply lines become choked by disaster, and can potentially have consequences beyond the region which was exposed to the disaster.

The Electric Vehicle in the Smart City

Such events can only put upward pressure on the price of fuel, while providing further incentive to move away from the internal combustion engine as means of motive power. Electric vehicles would provide a much better ability to recover quickly from storm events as they are not restricted by access to fuel. Micro-grids in cities provide sectors of available power for which electric emergency response vehicles can move.

By moving reliance away from carbon based fuels to renewable electric sources and energy storage, future development in cities may see the benefits inherent in the electric vehicle. Burning fuels create heat, water and carbon dioxide in the combustion process. They consume our breathable oxygen and pollute the atmosphere. Pipelines, tankers and rail cars can break and spill causing pollution. Exploration causes damage to the environment.

A city that is energy efficient and reliant on renewable sources of energy that benignly interact with the environment can approach self-sustainability and a high degree of resilience against disaster. This combined with designing to much higher standards which keep in mind the current volatility our climate is experiencing, and uses the lessons learned in other areas as indicators of best practices into the future.

References

Turning to Net Zero for Buildings – The HERS Index

Posted on September 20, 2017 by duanetilden

Over the last few months my time has been occupied with travel and work. Relocation and working in construction has consumed certain amounts of time. In the process I have continued to learn and observe my working environment from the perspective of a mechanical engineer.

I have upgraded some of my technology, investing in a smart phone for it’s utility and ease of connection. However, this newer tech is still not the best for longer term research and curation efforts, such as this blog. I am happy to report I have managed to land a longer term residence which now will provide me the needed stability and access to resources, while I can set up my work space needed for more intensive endeavours.

Now relocated in Vancouver, I have a few projects in the works, and am able to get back to focusing some of my time into my own research and development, to which, is one of the major purposes of my blogging. Next week, on September 25th there is a luncheon course presentation I plan on attending regarding upcoming changes to the BC Building Code introducing The Energy Step Code. More on this topic later after the seminar.

In California we already see the movement on towards the construction of net zero buildings, as compliance to the 2016 Building Energy Standard which applies to “new construction of, and additions and alterations to, residential and nonresidential buildings.” (1) These rules came into effect January 1st, 2017. I will be reviewing this publicly available document and provide more insight and commentary at a later time.

One measure of rating homes for energy efficiency that I have seen often referenced and may be a tool for reporting and rating homes is the HERS Index as shown in the graphic.

Image 1: HERS Index scale of residential home energy consumption.

As we can see from the scale that there is reference home, so there are calculation needed to rate a home, computer methods are available online where a houses data can be input for a curious homeowner, however qualified ratings are to be done by a qualified HERS Rating technician. These ensure by performance tests that a house meets standards in actual use and perform as claimed.

A comprehensive
HERS home energy rating

The HERS Rater will do a comprehensive HERS home energy rating on your home to assess its energy performance. The energy rating will consist of a series of diagnostic tests using specialized equipment, such as a blower door test, duct leakage tester, combustion analyzer and infrared cameras. These tests will determine:

The amount and location of air leaks in the building envelope

The amount of leakage from HVAC distribution ducts

The effectiveness of insulation inside walls and ceilings

Any existing or potential combustion safety issues

Other variables that are taken into account include:

Floors over unconditioned spaces (like garages or cellars)

Attics, foundations and crawlspaces

Windows and doors, vents and ductwork

Water heating system and thermostats

Once the tests have been completed, a computerized simulation analysis utilizing RESNET Accredited Rating Software will be used to calculate a rating score on the HERS Index. (3)

As buildings become more expensive and are asked to provide ever more services there will be a movement to make these building more efficient to operate and maintain. As we do more with less, there will be social impacts and repercussions. To some these changes may be disruptive, while enabling newer markets in energy efficiency, renewables, energy storage, micro-grids and net zero buildings, to name a few.

References:

California Building Code Title 24 – 2016 Building Energy Efficiency Standards for Residential and Nonresidential Buildings.
Understanding the HERS Index
How to Get a HERS® Index Score

Energy Certificates and the Blockchain Protocol

Posted on June 1, 2017 by duanetilden

In the world of energy production, renewable energy sources, micro grids, large scale users, and other forms of electric power schemes there is a concentrated effort being placed on utilizing the Blockchain protocol. This is because of the unique way in which a unit may be defined and tracked, similarly, can be associated to tracking quantities of value created and utilized in a complex trading scheme.

In a recent article (1) it has been reported that Jesse Morris, principal for electricity and transportation practices at RMI and co-founder of the Energy Web Foundation (EWF) received $2.5 million to develop the Blockchain protocol for energy purposes.

“We have a strong hypothesis that blockchain will solve a lot of long-running problems in the energy sector,” said Morris. “Overcoming these challenges could make small, incremental changes to energy infrastructure and markets in the near term, while others would be more far-reaching and disruptive.”

Certificates (also known as guarantees) of origin would assure the user that a particular megawatt-hour of electricity was produced from renewables. According to Morris, the U.S. alone has 10 different tracking systems, Asia-Pacific has several more, and each European country has its own system of certification. Blockchain could be used to transparently guarantee the origin of the electrons.

Longer-term, and more radically, RMI sees the future of electricity networks being driven by the billions of energy storage and HVAC units, EVs, solar roof panels and other devices and appliances at the grid edge.

Blockchains can allow any of them to set their own level of participation on the grid, without the need for an intermediary. And crucially, they can be configured so that if a grid operator needs guaranteed capacity, the grid-edge unit can communicate back to the grid whether or not it’s up to the task.

This is an example of what Morris described as blockchain’s ability to “fuse the physical with the virtual” via machine-to-machine communication. (1)

Another example of the emergence of the usefulness and interest in the Blockchain protocol is in crowdsourcing and distributed ledger applications.

Illustration by Dan Page (2)

At its heart, blockchain is a self-sustaining, peer-to-peer database technology for managing and recording transactions with no central bank or clearinghouse involvement. Because blockchain verification is handled through algorithms and consensus among multiple computers, the system is presumed immune to tampering, fraud, or political control. It is designed to protect against domination of the network by any single computer or group of computers. Participants are relatively anonymous, identified only by pseudonyms, and every transaction can be relied upon. Moreover, because every core transaction is processed just once, in one shared electronic ledger, blockchain reduces the redundancy and delays that exist in today’s banking system.

Companies expressing interest in blockchain include HP, Microsoft, IBM, and Intel. In the financial-services sector, some large firms are forging partnerships with technology-focused startups to explore possibilities. For example, R3, a financial technology firm, announced in October 2015 that 25 banks had joined its consortium, which is attempting to develop a common crypto-technology-based platform. Participants include such influential banks as Citi, Bank of America, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, UniCredit, Société Générale, Mitsubishi UFG Financial Group, National Australia Bank, and the Royal Bank of Canada. Another early experimenter is Nasdaq, whose CEO, Robert Greifeld, introduced Nasdaq Linq, a blockchain-based digital ledger for transferring shares of privately held companies, also in October 2015. (2)

References:

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	guyvanm2014outlookco… on Heating Efficiency and Proper…
	Energy Efficiency of… on DOE Invests in Super-Critical…
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Electricity Prosumers & Renewable Energy

What is a Peaker Plant?

Public Utilities Commission of the State of California (CPUC)

Table 1 – Summary of Pacific Gas and Electric’s (PG&E’s) energy storage power purchase agreements (PPAs)

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Foreword:

Figure 1. Size comparison of Supercritical Power Turbine to Conventional Steam Turbine (1)

Abstract:

The Principle of Operation

Figure 1. Illustration of a Supercritical CO2 Turbine [Peregrine Turbine Technologies] (2)

Advances in Materials and Technology

Previous Blog Posts on Supercritical Carbon Dioxide:

References:

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What Makes a Currency Valuable?

Currency and Security

Consensus and Fiat Money

Cryptocurrencies Create Markets

Cryptocurrency Offerings and Exchanges

The Future of Cryptocurrency

Disclaimers:

References

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Micro-grid and the Blockchain

P2P TRADING

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Hurricanes Cause Massive Damage

Storm-Proofing Cities

Regional Infrastructure and Resiliency

500 Year Floods

The Oil and Gas Industry

The Electric Vehicle in the Smart City

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A comprehensive HERS home energy rating

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Table 1 – Summary of Pacific Gas and Electric’s (PG&E’s) energy storage power purchase
agreements (PPAs)

A comprehensive
HERS home energy rating