The Mind of a Market – Part 1

Author: Duane M. Tilden, P.Eng.                      Date: July 2, 2018

The arrow of time points forward; past events are irreversible

Foreword:

This article, has grown and is expanding as I write. Being my own editor I have to make decisions, so that in order to expedite publishing I am breaking the material down into parts. The idea behind this article is to explore what makes the cryptocurrency market move and the psychology behind the market, a collection of minds or “hive-mind“. We will use references from the stock market and investing community, social sciences, finance, engineering and other realms of thought and application.

I would like to postulate that collectively CC markets are populated by a type of person who has a basic understanding of the fundamentals of Bitcoin, blockchain and smart contracts, online interaction and the use of app’s, purchasing and trading, banking, stock markets, economics and other needed basics to make the ecosystem have value and meaning to the user.

Or perhaps, the user is in the process of learning these fundamentals, as such having desire and ability to learn new concepts and be able to employ them digitally is necessary for success. There are learning curves to be surmounted; patience, persistence and diligence are required. In any event I invite seasoned pro, novice or the curious to follow my explorations into the world of crypto.

Image result for whale

Photo #1: National Geographic – Migrating Whales

What is the Cryptocurrency Market?

The cryptocurrency market is dominated by a few major assets, most notably Bitcoin which has a current dominance factor of 42.6%. Reviewing listed CC assets listed on the website coinmarketcap.com we find the use of charts and graphs useful in understanding how values and prices fluctuate over time in these markets. I have used these charts in previous articles, listed below is the current Total Market Cap of $257 Bn, which has recently increased by $21 Bn since Friday, June 29th.

Total Crypto Market Cap Jun 24 to Jul 1 2018 #1

Figure 1: CryptoCurrency Total Market Cap Chart – June 24 to July 1, 2018

For the sake of simplicity, my analyses is generalized in nature. Individual traded assets have their own utility and value based on a multiplicity of factors, some of which may be intangible. When deciding which assets to choose for holding and trading there are many of those factors which become important when considering risking investment over time. We will delve into this issue in another post, all part of the due diligence process.

Over the past decade, blockchain technology has captured the imagination of technologists around the world, and in the past year Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) of cryptocurrency tokens have exploded in popularity. In just the first four months of 2018, ICOs raised $6.3 billion USD in funding, 18% more than in all of 2017. (1)

As we can see from the excerpt taken from the CPA Ontario website ICO’s raised $6.3 Bn in funding for the first quarter of 2018. For argument’s sake we can extrapolate a value of $30 Bn for the year, or even more to $50 Bn if we assume more issues later in the year. However, considering the total trading values in active markets we can by inspection see that the ICO market is small compared to values traded on exchanges. Total Market Cap can increase by over $20 Bn or more in a day (2), and daily volumes also can vary in the same range of about $10 to $20 Bn over 24 hour periods.

As a final note, not all transactions in cryptocurrency need to be done through an exchange, and private transactions are not included in TMC analysis, although it is fair to assume that trade values of these transactions will be made close to current market prices. When trading on exchanges one must always be aware of the market depth compared to order size, which can cause significant run up in price when a large transaction is made on the market. One reason why experienced traders generally make smaller incremental buys or sales to limit market distortion and costs as well as profit from large trade orders which run up the market temporarily.

Modeling Generalizations

For the sake of most of my market reviews there are certain generalizations which I make, first is I exclude ICO’s as a minor influence on the market as a whole. Those who intend to issue ICO’s would be wise to incorporate market analysis and timing as part of their marketing strategy. Starting an ICO in a soft market will be more difficult when money is tight for investors, as an example.

The second generalization I make is to limit reviews generally to the top 25 listed CC’s by market capitalization. From past analysis I have found that over 80% of capital is contained in the top 25 while the remaining 1500+ listed account for the remaining 20% Total Market Cap. Movements of these coins may be important to the individual trader, however as factors that may move the whole market their sphere of influence is generally limited.

Thus, as we can see, the above reductions will simplify future modeling of cryptocurrency markets by eliminating ICO’s and examining global movements of the top 25 listed cryptocurrencies, of which Bitcoin currently dominates with a MC of $108 Bn USD, followed by Tether, Ethereum, EOS, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, etc.

Who are the Players in the CryptoCurrency Markets?

First there are the digital assets or cryptocurrencies, which we already discussed in general and of which there are many. However, we have reduced this population down to a usable quantity for analytical and discussion purposes by reducing the market to the top 25 and ignoring the effects of ICO’s on the market. Next to be discussed is the user base, which is a generalization for investors, holders, developers, traders, speculators and the consumer marketplaces. Some of these markets are more developed than others as more people learn the benefits of cryptocurrency, the blockchain and distributed ledger technology.

As both sides of the markets have grown we will examine the effect of exchanges and how this third component enables the other two components to interact much like how a third leg is necessary to the utility and stability of a stool. These virtual cryptocurrency exchanges have many similarities to the stock market as both represent an asset the basis of which are distinct and separable, frequently representing commodities or utility previously considered intangible.

Demographics of the User

Is it possible to identify the “average” or “normal” user, and thus be able to establish some trends or behaviours that can be predicted? Let us explore this concept further.

One Bloomberg News article found online mentions a survey which found 5% of 5700 adults surveyed owned Bitcoin.

Nearly 60 percent of Americans have heard or read about the world’s largest cryptocurrency, according to a joint SurveyMonkey and Global Blockchain Business Council poll of more than 5,700 adults conducted in January. But only 5 percent of people actually own the digital coin.

Those few Bitcoin investors are of a fairly consistent demographic. An overwhelming 71 percent of them are male. The majority — 58 percent — are young, between the ages of 18 and 34 years old. And unlike the broader U.S. population, nearly half of them are minorities. (3)

Another survey is more thorough providing demographics on users interviewed in their surveys. It also provides interesting feedback as to the nature of existing resistance to adoption as seen below in Figure 2. Something which should be paid particular interest.

Finder

Figure 2. Table of Reasons – Resistance to CryptoCurrency Adoption

Other interesting demographic information can be examined such as age groups, gender, income level and ethnicity of those surveyed may provide useful information. For example who are those most likely to invest in Bitcoin or other Cryptocurrencies? This survey compares Millennials, Gen X and Babyboomer generations.

Millennials and Generation X

A similarity between the results of the Finder survey and the survey by LENDEDU is that Millennials are the largest group invested in cryptocurrency followed by Generation X.

The survey by Finder found that among those who purchased cryptocurrency there are:

  • 17.21 percent of Millennials surveyed,

  • 8.75 percent of Generation X surveyed.

Finder

Figure 3. Table of Crypto Investors by Age Group (4)

 

Summary Comments – Part 1

In order to make sense of our examination of the cryptocurrency market we have used scientific methods of reduction to group together data in meaningful ways and thereby reducing workloads. The generalizations, rules or assumptions are that the market is fairly well represented by the movements of the top 25 listed cryptocurrencies, and that ICO’s are a separate market which has little effect on the main market.

The current model is a spreadsheet analysis of price and total market capitalization of the top 25 cryptocurrencies as listed on Coinmarketcap.com for a particular time period. Cycles in capitalization may be uncovered through data analysis. Also opportunities in markets and penetration. Current surveys indicate populations which require more attention and information for wider adoption which are useful for marketing campaigns.

 

Part 2 (To be Continued)

  • Trading Exchanges and Price Movements
  • Whales and Institutions
  • Trading Levels, Trust and the Nash Equilibrium
  • Time Frames, Cycles and Risk
  • Geographical and Geopolitical Factors

 

References:

  1. navigating-the-brave-new-world-of-cryptocurrency-and-icos
  2. weekly-market-cap-surges-50-billion-cryptocurrency-prices-continue-to-rise/
  3. a-look-at-who-owns-bitcoin-young-men-and-why-lack-of-trust
  4. how-many-americans-really-own-crypto-skewed-results-of-polls-and-surveys

 

 

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Game Theory and Markets: Schelling Points and The Nash Equilibrium

Author: Duane M. Tilden, P.Eng.        Date: June 10, 2018

Prologue:  It’s been a few weeks since my last blog post as I have been quite involved in other matters. As part of my work involves research and learning I would like to organize some of my discoveries and thoughts and relate them further by curation and publication on my blog.

Some things that I have been aware of it seems to me, intuitively, are rules which have been previously codified by others. Two now under examination are named after their discoverer’s respectively; Schelling Points and The Nash Equilibrium.  These ideas have profound implications in various forms of trade, microeconomics, macroeconomics, and cryptoeconomics.

Schelling or “Focal” Points

In the study of crowds or markets as an example we will find that there will be a tendency of people to gravitate towards the familiar in the absence of information. Such information is useful in the study of how people tend to behave. This information can also used to make optimal choices between two or more people in games of strategy whether between strangers where the others’ choice is unknown, or between friends or groups who may be more predictable in behaviour.

Image result for grand central station new yorkImage 1:  Grand Central Terminal turned 100 years old in 2013. Photo: Buck Ennis

In my own study of markets and their behaviour it is noticeable that one can postulate certain cycles based on common patterns where conflicts for disposable income can affect the movement of capital in and out of the market. I find that this is very similar to what has been found by Thomas Schelling and is also known as “focal points”.

Image result for thomas schellingImage 2: Thomas Schelling received his Ph.D. from Harvard in 1946 and joined the Harvard faculty in 1958. Photo by Martha Stewart

Thomas Schelling, the Nobel-winning game theorist … found in an informal survey that many of his students tended toward the same answer when posed this question about New York City: they would wait under the clock in Grand Central Station at 12 noon, hoping their partners had the same idea.

He introduced this concept in his 1960 book The Strategy of Conflict as a “focal point” – a solution to a coordination problem that somehow stands out as the natural answer even if the participants don’t have a chance to arrange it beforehand. Schelling argued that people’s apparent ability to coordinate without communicating was key to understanding how real-life strategic games are solved.

As game theory has developed in the decades since, Schelling’s ideas about focal points have been rarely studied, partly because the existence of focal points was perceived more as a mysterious, sociological phenomenon rather than an economic one amenable to analysis.

Schelling argued that people’s apparent ability to coordinate without communicating was key to understanding how real-life strategic games are solved.

Schelling himself said trying to determine the focal point of a game analytically is like trying to use a computer to understand whether a joke will be funny – it depends on cultural context and the relationship of the people trying to coordinate. Even the classic Schelling focal point of Grand Central might not apply if you asked different groups of New Yorkers who lived in different parts of the city or never took the trains that pass through the station.

The Nash Equilibrium

The Nash Equilibrium is a basic solution set which can be identified in every day life through some observation. One of the better examples it the driver matrix on a two-way street, where the optimal solution is for both drivers to drive on the left hand or right hand side of the road. If not, then a collision will likely result as both cars will be moving in opposing directions head-on.

Generally speaking one can view this equilibrium as an expectation that in various scenario’s where a choice is required, the person will behave in their own best interests. Understanding this concept is essential to how incentives work in an economy and how such incentives can be used to modify a person’s behavior, whether in a game, company, group, or a market.

Nash Equilibrium is a term used in game theory to describe an equilibrium where each player’s strategy is optimal given the strategies of all other players. A Nash Equilibrium exists when there is no unilateral profitable deviation from any of the players involved. In other words, no player in the game would take a different action as long as every other player remains the same. Nash Equilibria are self-enforcing; when players are at a Nash Equilibrium they have no desire to move because they will be worse off.

 

 

Weekly Market Cap Surges $50 Billion; Cryptocurrency Prices Continue to Rise

Previously, I reported on Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization and its relevance to understanding movements in the prices of cryptocurrencies. Let’s take a look at the markets one week after the reported $25bn of capital was put into the crypto markets. Refer to Figures 1 and 2 below, where in Fig. 2 we see that the TMC moved from $275 bn to $300 bn in under one hour.

Total Crypto Market Cap April 12 to 19 2018

Figure 1. Total Market Capitalization April 12 to 19th, 2018

 

Total Crypto Market Cap April 5 to 12 2018

Figure 2. TMC April 5 to 12th, 2018 (1)

Inspection of Figure 1. indicates that the TMC demonstrates a weekly upward trend. After the initial spike of $25 bn reported last Thursday, another $25 bn was added to the TMC Friday. For most of the week it hovered at the $325 bn level until Wednesday April 18th. Since then another $25 bn has been added over 24 hours to a new level of $350 billion. This is a total increase in the TMC of the Cryptocurrency market in one week of $75 billiion, or 27.2 %, from $275 to $350 billion.

TMC Top 25 Cryptocurrencies April 19 2018Figure 3. TMC of Top 25 Cryptocurrencies, April 12th to 19th 

Top 25 Cryptocurrencies

Of the listed 1574 cryptocurrencies traded on over 10,000 markets as reported by the website CoinMarketCap we see that Bitcoin represents over 39% of the TMC, and the top 25 altogether account for over 87% of capital in the market.

Of the 25 listed coins/tokens inspected we see that 22 advanced and only 3 retracted on the week, for 88% of the listed cryptocurrencies in the green. Most of these advanced by 25 to 35% over the week, with Stellar advancing the most at 59%. This is an example of a competitive marketplace where various suppliers are in competition for market share.

Note that the TMC increased from $275 to $350 Billion USD or 27%, and by inspection we can see that the average price of the cryptocurrencies listed in the top 25 increased by a rate between 25 to 35%. At present the TMC of $350 bn is 42% of the peak TMC of $829 bn  which occurred earlier this year on January 7, 2018. Since the peak the TMC has been generally trending down to current levels.

We can see from the forgoing that there is a strong correlation between TMC and the price movements of the various cryptocurrencies. This is the market dynamic of supply and demand in action; as the money supply increases in a market of fixed supply such as cryptocurrency, the prices of said commodities in that market must rise.

Is it possible that we have seen the bottom range of current TMC and moving forward we may experience more uptrends.

Happy Trading!

References:

  1. understanding-cryptocurrency-trading-markets-and-total-market-capitalization/

 

 

Chinese Blockbuster “Alibaba” Launches Cryptocurrency Mining Platform

[…When asked his feelings on digital currency, Ma claimed to be “totally confused,” explaining that “even if it works, the whole international rules on trade and financing are going to be completely changed.”

At the same time, Ma – whose net worth tops $46 billion – was quick to praise the advent of blockchain technology, suggesting his company had already looked into ways to harness this tool. …] (1)

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

(Chinese: 阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司; pinyin: Ālǐbābā Jítuán Kònggǔ Yǒuxiàn Gōngsī) is a Chinese multinational  e-commerce , retail, Internet and technology conglomerate founded in 1999 that provides consumer-to-consumer, business-to-consumer and business-to-business sales services via web portals, as well as electronic payment services, shopping search engines and data-centric cloud computing services. It also owns and operates a diverse array of businesses around the world in numerous sectors.[2]

In 2012, two of Alibaba’s portals handled 1.1 trillion yuan ($170 billion) in sales.[3] At closing time on the date of its initial public offering (IPO), 19 September 2014, Alibaba’s market value was US$231 billion.[4]

As of January 2018, Alibaba’s market cap stood at US$490 billion.[5] It is one of the top 10 most valuable and biggest companies in the world.[6]

References:

  1. alibaba-launching-crypto-platform
  2. Alibaba_Group – Wikipedia

Are Cryptocurrencies a Fad or a Revolution in Finance?

Duane M. Tilden, P.Eng
November 5, 2017

As I was walking to my weekly bridge game at the local club, I was pondering my newfound interest in cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Ethereum, the block chain, and related topics such as mining, smart contracts, ICO’s; the list goes on. I also thought about the value of things from my childhood, like marbles, hockey and baseball trading cards, comic books, coins, stamps, post cards, and other things that I have collected. All which created markets and gained extrinsic value over time, and could be held speculatively. I then asked myself, “Are cryptocurrencies a passing  fad or here to stay?”

What Makes a Currency Valuable?

Some things, such as coins may be made of a valuable base metal alloy, like gold, silver, nickel and copper. Coins are currency, and as such a perfect example to assessing intrinsic value and extrinsic value. In the past coins were minted with higher contents of the base metal alloys.  The metal content gave them an intrinsic value due to the metals rarity and utility. In time, these metals gained value, to the point where it cost more to mint a coin than it was worth.  People would then begin to horde or “mine” the coin for its intrinsic value which was greater than it’s face value as a currency.

metcalfe_curve

Figure 1. The Metcalfe Curve (1)

Extrinsic value, however, could be likened to what we would consider the “fiat” aspect of a currency. As currencies have moved away from a gold or silver standard, the value of money is largely based on consensus. Markets are also consensus driven, without a universal agreement or set of rules, there could not be trade. This is the reason for the development for money or currency. I work and get paid in the common unit of currency, which I can then use to buy and rent goods and services.

Currency and Security

Until recent developments, Governments and their agencies in partnership with banking institutions have generally controlled currency and financial markets. The operation of the economy is the basis upon which society functions. Money exchanges hands for goods and services, including wages. One currency usually denominates value in a physical market. However, these markets can be subject to various forms of attack or manipulation. Physical money could be counterfeited, transfer of money and assets could be lost or stolen, other forms of fraud could occur where one loses their assets.

Another form of attack is personal, or on the individual. Local regulations and taxation laws require valuation of assets and income which are held by the individual to be known to the public agency and could be subject to economic deprivation and restrictions. This is an instance where individual privacy is violated in built-in, systemic and semi-transparent.

Examples of this are everywhere, such as income tax, sales tax, medical tax, alimony and child-support, retirement and pension plans, insurance. If you owe the government money in a disputed case, they often will violate an individuals rights to deprive them of assets, such as money in bank accounts, garnishee of wages directly from the employer, denial of services, loss of principal residence and other such actions.

Most of the money that we earn, own, or spend is being tracked by the government. There are lots of taxes and lots of “rules” made by the big boys. Unfortunately, the present financial system is often disadvantaging us. Why? Because it often collects more than it provides. (2)

Consensus and Fiat Money

Since a currency in today’s world generally consists of a consensus agreeing in a trading market place, then the truth is anything can have value. As the internet has opened up trading across international borders, and companies have sprung up in the financial market place to provide services beyond their physical location, often catering to the world. I can purchase electronics from China and have them delivered to Canada on eBay, using PayPal or a credit card to exchange in their accepted currency. Buy and sell ads have sprung up, such as Craigslist and Kijiji , allowing wider ranging access to markets at a greatly reduced costs as compared to paper advertising in magazines.

Computer users over time had an edge over non-users, as information became available in a vast manner over greater areas. Shopping for the best price of a desired item, good or service can be searched for on my laptop and obtained at a fair cost. No longer does one have to go out and purchase a paper magazine or ad book, in their search. We now can now open a browser on our computer, or digital device, ask a question on a search engine and sort through a selection of answers. Phone numbers, addresses, reviews, prices, hours of operation, names of staff, job openings and more information is all available quickly and efficiently.

Enter the Bitcoin, blockchains and crypto-currencies. In one report recently obtained, sourced from the international Engineering Firm ARUP (2) it has been stated about Bitcoin, a technology introduced by Satoshi Nakomoto.

At the start of 2009,when the world was in the middle of a major financial crisis, a paradigm shift in technology quietly made its debut. That technology is called Bitcoin, and it’s the biggest innovation in finance in 500 years, and certainly the greatest invention of the 21st century so far. (3)

Cryptocurrencies Create Markets

Beyond creating an anonymous system of financial transactions and storage, crypto-currencies are creating new markets of value and trade. There has been a recent wave of new crypto-currencies coming on the market, most of which have issued whitepapers, and have sales landing pages which outline the details about structure, their markets or business plan, how to participate, and their projected timeline.

In my opinion, issuing tokens for sale is very similar to crowd-funding, which may also be likened to buying or selling shares on the stock market, without the restrictions or regulations necessarily placed on participants. Whether or not these activities are legal may depend on local jurisdictions. However, as long as no laws are broken for the purposes of making transactions in a business manner, or the proposed ecosystem,  then personal privacy of participants and security should be secured to all qualified participants, which are traits of a crypto-currency like the original Bitcoin.

The tokens offered in the pre-ICO sales are generally intended to fund the business operations, which, if all goes well, will turn a profit and be able to provide token based services. Details of the venture and how proceeds from projected profits are to be distributed are usually outlined in the white paper. Tokens may be able to be openly traded as a currency, depending on various applicable rules and regulations which may apply and being able to be listed on the various exchanges.

For example a current energy token on the market, PowerLedger.io (4) –  is a blockchain-based peer-to-peer energy trading platform enabling consumers and businesses to sell their surplus solar power to their neighbours without a middleman.

<From a Media Press Release>  Power Ledger is based in Perth and uses blockchain technology to allow households to trade excess solar power over the electricity network.

Major Australian power retailer Origin Energy recently announced a three-month trial with Power Ledger to explore the benefits and challenges of peer-to-peer energy trading across a regulated network.

“Blockchain technology and cryptocurrency underpins our business offering and we are excited to be working with Perth-based DigitalX” said Power Ledger Chair Dr Jemma Green.

POWR tokens will be offered via the Ethereum cryptocurrency network in an uncapped price offer, meaning the tokens’ final price will be determined by the market demand.

“POWR will be the Ethereum blockchain protocol token required throughout the Power Ledger eco-system that can be converted to ‘Sparkz’, which is the crypto-currency we have set up for users to trade electricity using the platform,” said Dr Green.

As part of the engagement,DigitalX will introduce cryptocurrency investors to Power Ledger in exchange for a fee which consists of a mix of Ether (ETH) and POWR tokens.

“Blockchain-enabled innovation is disrupting traditional industries and digital currency is changing the way companies access capital. DigitalX is pleased to be able to facilitate this quantum shift in traditional mechanisms for accessing funding,” said Mr Travers.  (5)

Generally speaking, however, most crypto-currencies will have many advantages over fiat currency or stock markets. For one, their trade is not restricted to one market, or country to operate. Beyond anonymity one can store value in one token, exchange it for another, buy services on a network, or hold it speculatively. There are the other aspects related to smart contracts and the block-chain where physical assets or other attributes, such as counting operations of a machine or device can be linked to a token. In fact the possibilities seem endless, only bounded by the limits of imagination.

Cryptocurrency Offerings and Exchanges

Every day I receive more notifications regarding new offerings on a multiple of news feeds. Many of these offerings look good and viable. There are many new white-papers to read, and some are quite technically advanced and detailed in outlook and projections. As more cryptocurrencies are introduced into markets and traded on platforms investments will be expected to continue.

As cryptocurrencies are rapidly gaining acceptance and appeal, the task of evaluating all emerging offerings would be odious without methods of categorization, comparison and establishing legitimacy. At this time, according to the coinmarketcap.com, there are 1257 Cryptocurrencies with a total market cap of $199 Billion USD currently listed on exchanges. Currently there are 121 active exchanges trading cryptocurrencies (5) and in the last 24 hours there was a “volume of 614,489 BTC and $4,396,051,516 on 5915 trading pairs” (6).

Other resources of current token or coin offerings and other related information can be found on various websites, including tokenmarket.net and coinranking.com.

The Future of Cryptocurrency

At the current pace of innovation, new offerings, and investment as determined by market capitalization, it does not appear that current rapid growth in cryptocurrencies  slow down. Rather, examining current trends in cryptocurrency and comparing to models, it appears that we are in the innovation and early adoption phases of a technological innovation, as seen in figure 2. (7)

TechAdoptCurve2

Figure 2. Technological Adoption Curve (7)

In addition to the known bell curve of adoption, the value of the networks being formed on the internet, obeys Metcalfe’s law, see figure 1.

Metcalfe’s law states that the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2).

As we can surmise from the effect of Metcalfe’s law as it applies to the development of cryptocurrencies is that we are currently in the earlier phases of value development, which will be expected to grow at an exponential rate associated with a nodal peer to peer model.

220px-Metcalfe-Network-Effect.svg

Two telephones can make only one connection, five can make 10 connections, and twelve can make 66 connections.

For innovators and early adopters these are exciting times as the number of participants continue to grow, and more capital continues to be invested in fledgling commercial enterprises. New business plans for ICO and Token issues are being issued every day. There are technical developments coming, apps, games, lenders and financial instruments, as well as new types of Tokens being issued with a variety of proof’s or calculation methods. Blockchains technology is changing to become increasingly efficient to handle ever increasing numbers of transactions. At this time there appears to be no limit to the possible applications of blockchain technology.

combined_curve

Figure 3. Combined Curve – Crossing the Chasm (1)

[…] The combination of Moore’s and Metcalfe’s laws explains the rise of information technology and the growth of the Internet as we know it today. […] And finally, in an unprecedented apotheosis, by combining the three preceding charts and by ― I have to admit ― visually cheating with axes, scales, and representations I came to the observation that the chasm is actually the point where the transition from a technology driven business to a value driven business needs to take place ― and if this doesn’t happen, that any new product or technology introduction is doomed to fail.

Disclaimers:

Expect that there are traps and pitfalls, some ventures may be fraudulent or simply fail. No guarantees on individual outcomes of ICO’s or other value propositions, and, as in all markets expect that there will be both successes and failures.

Expect, in various regions, government control and regulation, which may attempt to prevent or limit participation by populations or otherwise affect and manipulate markets.

Every participant in any new market, such as a cryptocurrency,  is advised to perform their own due diligence and research before investing capital.

No guarantees or warrantees are implied or expressed by the author, who, may at any time, hold vested interests in a variety of cryptocurrency tokens for speculation or other purposes.

End

References

  1. The Metcalfe Curve
  2. 7 Trends in Cryptocurrency Entrepreneurs Should Know
  3. Blockchain-Technology (for the Built Environment)
  4. How PowerLedger Works -Snapshot
  5. PowerLedger.io Home Page
  6. cryptocoincharts.info
  7. The Early Days of Cryptocurrency

 

An Engineering Blockchain Cryptocurrency

The revolutionary aspect of the blockchain is starting serious discussions in the Professional Engineering community. Indications are that there are some fundamental problems in Engineering may be solved by the issuance of a token, in this case called Quant (1) and is currently in the “sand-box” phase of development.

The plan, in part, involves mining Quant to create a public key, or data-base called Engipedia.  There is also a “proof-of-stake” (2) aspect, which forms an engineer’s private key summarizing by algorithm the engineer’s personal data such as education, qualifications, projects, and other contributions or related works.

The Quant token, which is proposed to have inherent smart contract capabilities will be mined by engineers in a variety of ways, most of which are intended to establish an expanding  knowledge base, one such enterprise is called Engipedia. This is a knowledge base which has a formidable upside for democratic technological advancement and dissemination of workable knowledge worldwide.

As a virtual currency, the Quant token may provide a necessary bridge to financing that was previously inaccessible to engineers. Often pools of capital are controlled by vested interests or politically minded parties. Economic opportunities, which previously were unavailable due to lack of funding, may now have a financial vehicle for entrepreneurial Engineers.

The Design is the Contract

Engineering is different than finance and insurance. Finance and Insurance merely need to represent a physical object in a party / counter-party transaction script.  There is no design involved. Engineering represents a physical object – the engineering design and specification IS the smart contract. Then, what happens in construction, operations, maintenance, renovation, and replacement is far too complex to be scripted in a single smart contract. Engineering outcomes involve enormous mass, forces, and real-life consequences. (3)

References:

  1. The Market for QUANT
  2. QUANT Proof of Stake
  3. A Warning to Engineering Firms Concerning Blockchain Technology

Energy Certificates and the Blockchain Protocol

In the world of energy production, renewable energy sources, micro grids, large scale users, and other forms of electric power schemes there is a concentrated effort being placed on utilizing the Blockchain protocol.  This is because of the unique way in which a unit may be defined and tracked, similarly, can be associated to tracking quantities of value created and utilized in a complex trading scheme.

In a recent article (1) it has been reported that Jesse Morris, principal for electricity and transportation practices at RMI and co-founder of the Energy Web Foundation (EWF) received $2.5 million to develop the Blockchain protocol for energy purposes.

“We have a strong hypothesis that blockchain will solve a lot of long-running problems in the energy sector,” said Morris. “Overcoming these challenges could make small, incremental changes to energy infrastructure and markets in the near term, while others would be more far-reaching and disruptive.”

Certificates (also known as guarantees) of origin would assure the user that a particular megawatt-hour of electricity was produced from renewables. According to Morris, the U.S. alone has 10 different tracking systems, Asia-Pacific has several more, and each European country has its own system of certification. Blockchain could be used to transparently guarantee the origin of the electrons.

Longer-term, and more radically, RMI sees the future of electricity networks being driven by the billions of energy storage and HVAC units, EVs, solar roof panels and other devices and appliances at the grid edge.

Blockchains can allow any of them to set their own level of participation on the grid, without the need for an intermediary. And crucially, they can be configured so that if a grid operator needs guaranteed capacity, the grid-edge unit can communicate back to the grid whether or not it’s up to the task.

This is an example of what Morris described as blockchain’s ability to “fuse the physical with the virtual” via machine-to-machine communication.  (1)

Another example of the emergence of the usefulness and interest in the Blockchain protocol is in crowdsourcing and distributed ledger applications.

Illustration by Dan Page (2)

At its heart, blockchain is a self-sustaining, peer-to-peer database technology for managing and recording transactions with no central bank or clearinghouse involvement. Because blockchain verification is handled through algorithms and consensus among multiple computers, the system is presumed immune to tampering, fraud, or political control. It is designed to protect against domination of the network by any single computer or group of computers. Participants are relatively anonymous, identified only by pseudonyms, and every transaction can be relied upon. Moreover, because every core transaction is processed just once, in one shared electronic ledger, blockchain reduces the redundancy and delays that exist in today’s banking system.

Companies expressing interest in blockchain include HP, Microsoft, IBM, and Intel. In the financial-services sector, some large firms are forging partnerships with technology-focused startups to explore possibilities. For example, R3, a financial technology firm, announced in October 2015 that 25 banks had joined its consortium, which is attempting to develop a common crypto-technology-based platform. Participants include such influential banks as Citi, Bank of America, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, UniCredit, Société Générale, Mitsubishi UFG Financial Group, National Australia Bank, and the Royal Bank of Canada. Another early experimenter is Nasdaq, whose CEO, Robert Greifeld, introduced Nasdaq Linq, a blockchain-based digital ledger for transferring shares of privately held companies, also in October 2015. (2)

 

References:

  1. Energy Companies look to Blockchain
  2. A Strategist’s Guide to the Blockchain

Wide Bandgap Semiconductors – LED’s and the Future of Power Electronics

Hidden inside nearly every modern electronic is a technology — called power electronics — that is quietly making our wor…

Source: www.youtube.com

See on Scoop.itGreen Energy Technologies & Development

 

“Hidden inside nearly every modern electronic is a technology — called power electronics — that is quietly making our world run. Yet, as things like our phones, appliances and cars advance, current power electronics will no longer be able to meet our needs, making it essential that we invest in the future of this technology.

Today [January 15, 2014], President Obama will announce that North Carolina State University will lead the Energy Department’s new manufacturing innovation institute for the next generation of power electronics. The institute will work to drive down the costs of and build America’s manufacturing leadership in wide bandgap (WBG) semiconductor-based power electronics — leading to more affordable products for businesses and consumers, billions of dollars in energy savings and high-quality U.S. manufacturing jobs.

Integral to consumer electronics and many clean energy technologies, power electronics can be found in everything from electric vehicles and industrial motors, to laptop power adaptors and inverters that connect solar panels and wind turbines to the electric grid. For nearly 50 years, silicon chips have been the basis of power electronics. However, as clean energy technologies and the electronics industry has advanced, silicon chips are reaching their limits in power conversion — resulting in wasted heat and higher energy consumption.

Power electronics that use WBG semiconductors have the potential to change all this. WBG semiconductors operate at high temperatures, frequencies and voltages — all helping to eliminate up to 90 percent of the power losses in electricity conversion compared to current technology. This in turn means that power electronics can be smaller because they need fewer semiconductor chips, and the technologies that rely on power electronics — like electric vehicle chargers, consumer appliances and LEDs — will perform better, be more efficient and cost less.

One of three new institutes in the President’s National Network of Manufacturing Innovation, the Energy Department’s institute will develop the infrastructure needed to make WBG semiconductor-based power electronics cost competitive with silicon chips in the next five years. Working with more than 25 partners across industry, academia, and state and federal organizations, the institute will provide shared research and development, manufacturing equipment, and product testing to create new semiconductor technology that is up to 10 times more powerful that current chips on the market. Through higher education programs and internships, the institute will ensure that the U.S. has the workforce necessary to be the leader in the next generation of power electronics manufacturing.

Watch our latest video on how wide bandgap semiconductors could impact clean energy technology and our daily lives.”

source:  http://energy.gov/articles/wide-bandgap-semiconductors-essential-our-technology-future