About duanetilden

Engineer, Entrepreneur, Blogger, Farmer, Traveler and Nature Lover. I love music, quotes and blog about Green Building & Energy.

Understanding Cryptocurrency Trading Markets and Total Market Capitalization

Note: Soon to come is a separate blog for Digital Assets where I will continue to write, curate and publish these types of articles, reports and reviews relating to the Digital Asset Class, FinTech, Blockchain, Smart Contracts, CryptoCurrency and Markets. Duane M. Tilden, P.Eng; April 12, 2018.

Foreword:

Working on technical analysis of cryptocurrency, such as Bitcoin, we search for causes and effects to understand what makes markets move or prices to change. This is quite similar to how we may view the stock or commodity markets and a lot can be gained from techniques used by stock analysts and traders. Knowing how much of a commodity one can purchase for a given price is often vital to budgeting, whether it’s for a construction project, a dinner, or some other financial endeavour. If I cannot purchase enough of one product for a particular price then I must either raise more capital, or purchase an inferior product that may meet the specification or recipe, if one is available that can achieve the desired outcome.

Observing trends on charts and graphs is part of the toolbox where changes in pricing, volume or other parameters are graphed over time. We search for short, medium and long term trends. When something happens in a marketplace we assume there is a reason and look for relationships so that we can further understand market influences on pricing. Down to a basic level we seek “if this, then that”. This is the basis of supply demand economics.

Thursday, April 12th 2018 we saw that the price of Bitcoin went from trading at about $6800 to $7800 USD overnight, an increase of about 15%. An excellent opportunity to investigate what is the cause of this change in price and subsequent effects in the cryptocurrency market. How does this event distinguish itself from other price changes we often read or hear about regarding Bitcoin? If you wish to know more, read on.

Market Cap and Total Market Capitalization

Prior to the advent of cryptocurrency markets Market Capitalization is used in the financial world to define the size of a company by multiplying the current stock price by the number of outstanding shares to determine the size of a company. Currently the usage of Market Capitalization and Total Market Capitalization are applied also to the issues of Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple, Tron, Lisk, Minex, Dash, EOS and a multitude more. Every month new coins and tokens are emerging with whitepapers, websites, and ICO offerings.

Simply put, the Total Market Capitalization (TMC) is the sum of all the cryptocurrencies Market Caps (MC) listed and traded on the polled markets. It is important to remember this basic concept regarding markets in that there are events in the world which may cause change in attitudes or availability of capital, and movements of capital in or out of the market are reflected in the Total Market Cap. As this value moves so does money in and out of the markets.

Total Crypto Market Cap 2013 to April 12 2018

Figure 1. Total Market Capitalization of Listed Cryptocurrencies, April 28 2013 to April 12 2018

Total Crypto Market Cap April 5 to 12 2018

Figure 2. Total Market Capitalization of Listed Cryptocurrencies, April 5 2018 to April 12 2018

Bitcoin Price on Coinbase 4122018

Figure 3. Bitcoin $1000 (15%) One Hour Price Increase on Coinbase on April 12th, 2018.

Examining the forgoing graph on Figure 1 we can see how most of the TMC has been raised in the last 12 months. The TMC peaked on Sunday, January 7th 2018 with a value of $813.87 billion, and has a current value (April 13th, 2018) of $301.79 billion. Note that when we examine Figure 2 and the weekly chart of TMC we see a decided jump in value from around $275 billion to the current $300 billion, indicating $25 billion was introduced into the cryptocurrency market in less than a day.

Dominance - Percentage of Total Crypto Market Cap April 2013 to 2018

Figure 4. Historical Dominance Chart – Percentage of TMC by Cryptocurrency 

In Figure 3, this influx of capital into the market was reflected in the rapid increase in the price of Bitcoin, which has the highest trade volume on all markets and is dominant in the cryptocurrency market as seen in Figure 4. Coinbase price for Bitcoin shot up from $6856 to $8011 in about one hour, marking a jump in value of $1155 or 16.8%.

Almost all other cryptocurrencies followed suit and prices increased across the board as the previously tight bear market flooded with new capital. Sell orders were triggered as the prices rose rapidly and traders had new capital to reinvest into the market, resulting in further increases in alt coin prices.

Markets and Events

So we have clear evidence that a surge or influx of capital has entered the market. Now the questions that remain in our analysis of this significant event or change in the market are threefold; 1. What happened?  2. Who is making the trades?  3. On what markets?

1. What Happened?

One potential cause for this change in TMC is the entrance of new money or players in the market. A study released on April 10th regarding the compliance of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies meeting Islamic law relating to money and usury concluded by one Islamic scholar to be halal, or meeting strict Islamic requirements. For cryptocurrency holders this is important news as it opens markets to a significant sized population of potential users and investors.

JAKARTA, Indonesia. – April 10, 2018 – As fluctuations and volatility continue to rock the cryptocurrency world, Blossom Finance has commissioned and released a working paper exploring the Islamic permissibility of bitcoin, cryptocurrency, and blockchain. The paper concludes that Bitcoin fully meets the definition of Islamic money under certain conditions and is generally permissible under Shariah. Blossom’s research also includes analysis of various legal opinions (fatawah) issued by prominent Islamic scholars on the topic. The research and development of the working paper was led by Mufti Muhammad Abu Bakar – Blossom’s internal Shariah advisor and Shariah compliance officer.

2. Who is Trading and Why?

Let’s examine another report on this recent price spike to see if there is a correlation on what occurred on April 12th.

Bitcoin, the most dominant cryptocurrency in the global market, recorded a 15.94 percent increase in value, from $6,900 to $8,000. The price of the cryptocurrency rose by $1,100 within a 30-minute window, as massive buy volumes emerged. […]

To influence the price of bitcoin, which has a daily trading volume of above $9 billion, billions of dollars would have to be traded. More importantly, billions of dollars worth of new capital have to flow into the cryptocurrency market in order for the price of bitcoin to spike up, and bring the entire market with it.

The April 12 surge in the price of bitcoin was not caused by investors cashing out from alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) to bitcoin or reallocating their funds from other major cryptocurrencies to bitcoin, because the valuation of the cryptocurrency market increased by more than $20 billion.

A wave of new investors or potentially a few institutional investors likely allocated billions of dollars into the market in a short period of time, causing a short-term pump and leading the price of the cryptocurrency to surge.

It is virtually impossible to pinpoint a single factor to justify the price trend of any cryptocurrency, because a variety of factors can contribute to the momentum of a cryptocurrency.

https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price

As we see from this article on CCN they report on the price surge however dismiss the ability to determine the cause of this price movement as “virtually impossible”. While this may be the case when examining the price movement of individual coins, it is different when the whole market moves in unison. When this occurs we seek further explanation to determine whether this movement is a short term spike, or if the market has moved up to another level. For hodlers an increase in TMC to a higher level is good news, although it depends if investment is of a centralized holder or a widely dispersed or decentralized population.

There is a potential of overlooking causes in the market or performing a superficial analysis if we do not include the TMC in our study. One market analyst attributes to the surge in Bitcoin price to other factors such as short positions as follows;

Brian Kelly, CNBC contributor and head of BKCM, which runs a digital assets strategy for clients said: ”Once bitcoin broke higher, shorts were squeezed and forced to cover.”

“The ratio of short margin trades versus longs has been increasing recently,” said Nick Kirk, quantitative developer and data scientist at Cypher Capital, a cryptocurrency trading firm. “Buying volume ticked up today and a lot of these short trades got liquidated, helping fuel the rally.”

https://www.express.co.uk//-news-update-cryptocurrency-latest-surge

Others relate the price surge to relief of upcoming tax filing deadlines compounded by short positions;

Some market participants believe that Thursday’s sudden upward price move “could be an unwinding of that (tax-related) pressure,” and the spike had a compounding effect as it “forced traders who had bet against the cryptocurrency to buy back into the market,” reports CNBC.

why-did-bitcoin-jump-1k-april-12

These analysis overlooks the overall increase of $25 billion to the TMC or the rally in the rest of the market. If the connection between the price rises and increase in TMC is being caused by a new population of investors representing 1.6 billion people, then this is a likely indication of more to come in the future and we are seeing the first wave of new capital enter markets.

3. On What Markets are They Trading?

Where these trades are being made is a more difficult task requiring some deeper digging into available data. If we find that all of the capital is coming into the market on only a few or one exchange then that would be indicative of a centralized actor in the market, while if we see more evenly traded entry across a number of markets this may indicate a wider dispersed population. At this time we have no information if any abnormal trading occurred on any market on April 12th except for an overall increase in volume. Deeper analysis is beyond the scope of this report, and I will leave it as an exercise for the interested reader.

Exploring the historical data records on CoinMarketCap it is revealed that the 24 hour trading volume went from $4,641,890,000 on April 11th to $8,906,250,000 on April 12th. Clearly the increase in trading volume of $4.3 billion is not the TMC of $25 billion, and we look also at the price increase to get an indication of the increase in MC. From the same data chart we read that MC increased from $118,048,000,000 to $134,114,000,000 for a total of $16.1 billion which would be a dominance factor of 0.64 on the increase of $25 billion TMC. Currently the Bitcoin dominance factor is at about 0.40 and has been rising.

Final Remarks

The forgoing analysis is not an exact science and as we can see relationships are not always inelastic. For example the increase in the TMC of $25 billion cannot be accounted for by the increase in Bitcoin trading volume of $4.3 billion divided by the Dominance Factor of 0.4 which would predict an increase in Total Trading Volume of $10.75 billion. This would indicate that there is a multiplier effect on invested capital to TMC. Also, capital is constantly flowing in and out of the markets and may change hands many times in one day. All of these and others unexamined factors may affect the TMC.

Events in this world form links in a causal chain, and often to manage best our resources information on relationships between various factors are important to understand when forming investing strategies or making budget decisions. Analysts provide qualified opinions on trends, and predictive market analysis is an important and valuable tool in decision making. Understanding fundamental market economics is essential to understanding cryptocurrency markets.

 

 

 

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Why Oil and Pipelines Are a Bad Deal For Canadians – Kinder Morgan/Oil Sands

Let’s get straight to the point. Canadians are getting ripped off. We pay the among the highest prices in the world for our own plentiful resources. Meanwhile we ship it to the US and abroad. This is in clear conflict with stewardship goals of our resources, environment and our collective future. What gives Mr. Trudeau?

Canada taxes its oil and gas companies at a fraction of the rate they are taxed abroad, including by countries ranked among the world’s most corrupt, according to an analysis of public data by the Guardian.

The low rate that oil companies pay in Canada represents billions of dollars in potential revenue lost, which an industry expert who looked at the data says is a worrying sign that the country may be “a kind of tax haven for our own companies.”

The countries where oil companies paid higher rates of taxes, royalties and fees per barrel in 2016 include Nigeria, Indonesia, Ivory Coast and the UK.

“I think it will come as a surprise to most Canadians, including a lot of politicians, that Canada is giving oil companies a cut-rate deal relative to other countries,” said Keith Stewart, an energy analyst with Greenpeace.

Companies like Chevron Canada paid almost three times as much to Nigeria and almost seven times as much to Indonesia as it did to Canadian, provincial and municipal governments.

Chevron used to run its Nigeria and Indonesia projects out of the U.S., but after allegations that they evaded billions in taxes, their operations were moved to Canada.

According to data collected by the Guardian, Suncor also paid six times more taxes to the UK, and Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL) paid almost four times more to Ivory Coast. (1)

Image result for oilsands

Figure 1. Taken from: Alberta First Nation presents evidence against Teck’s exploratory drilling for oil sands mine (2)

CALGARY – British Columbia’s government wants to restrict shipments of oilsands crude in pipelines and on railways cars in the province through a series of proposed new rules that is set to create additional uncertainty for Kinder Morgan Canada’s $7.4-billion Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.

The proposed rules also open B.C. up to jurisdictional challenges and have already exacerbated a spat with Alberta Premier Rachel Notley, who called the proposals “both illegal and unconstitutional.”

B.C. Environment and Climate Change Strategy Minister George Heyman announced Tuesday rules to limit “the increase of diluted bitumen transportation until the behaviour of spilled bitumen can be better understood and there is certainty regarding the ability to adequately mitigate spills.”

To that end, B.C. will establish an independent scientific advisory panel to make recommendations on if and how heavy oils can be safely transported and, if spilled, cleaned up.

Tuesday’s announcement did not specifically mention Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain expansion, which will boost the shipments of oil from Alberta to Burnaby, B.C. from 300,000 barrels per day to 890,000 bpd, but the B.C. NDP had promised to block the pipeline’s construction during an election campaign last year.

In an interview with the Financial Post, Heyman said B.C.’s Environmental Management Act “gives us the right, in addition to our responsibility, to defend B.C.’s vulnerable coastline, our inland waterways, our economic and environmental interests and that’s what British Columbians expect us to do.” (3)

Justin Trudeau, Bill Nye

References:

  1. revealed-oil-giants-pay-billions-less-tax-in-canada-than-abroad
  2. athabasca-chipewyan-first-nation-present-evidence-against-tecks-drilling-oil-sands-mine 
  3. b-c-proposes-new-rules-to-restrict-oilsands-exports-in-fresh-setback-for-trans-mountain-pipeline

Chinese Blockbuster “Alibaba” Launches Cryptocurrency Mining Platform

[…When asked his feelings on digital currency, Ma claimed to be “totally confused,” explaining that “even if it works, the whole international rules on trade and financing are going to be completely changed.”

At the same time, Ma – whose net worth tops $46 billion – was quick to praise the advent of blockchain technology, suggesting his company had already looked into ways to harness this tool. …] (1)

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

(Chinese: 阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司; pinyin: Ālǐbābā Jítuán Kònggǔ Yǒuxiàn Gōngsī) is a Chinese multinational  e-commerce , retail, Internet and technology conglomerate founded in 1999 that provides consumer-to-consumer, business-to-consumer and business-to-business sales services via web portals, as well as electronic payment services, shopping search engines and data-centric cloud computing services. It also owns and operates a diverse array of businesses around the world in numerous sectors.[2]

In 2012, two of Alibaba’s portals handled 1.1 trillion yuan ($170 billion) in sales.[3] At closing time on the date of its initial public offering (IPO), 19 September 2014, Alibaba’s market value was US$231 billion.[4]

As of January 2018, Alibaba’s market cap stood at US$490 billion.[5] It is one of the top 10 most valuable and biggest companies in the world.[6]

References:

  1. alibaba-launching-crypto-platform
  2. Alibaba_Group – Wikipedia

How to Invest in CryptoCurrency – A Guide for Everyone

Of the many and diverse interests of mine, I include the emerging technology and upcoming revolution in finance, the CryptoCurrency [CC], Smart Contracts [SC] and the BlockChain [BC]. This makes sense as it fits in well with my technological background and interest in all things internet and information technology.

My first experiences with CC’s go back to 2012 when I was first looking at Bitcoin. I was interested in mining and how the various video cards of the day would perform to mine the BTC. Unfortunately, beyond doing some initial research and some trials with faucets in 2014, I did not invest early in Crypto. Some of the early amounts were still in present in my wallet and the small amount had grown considerably even left alone, from about $1 to $20 in a couple of years. This is shown in my current balance below.

Yesterday, January 13th 2018 marks a first. The day I spent my money on cryptocurrencies online and put myself at risk, and this is after much careful deliberation. I am starting with $200 (Canadian Dollars) with a plan of  investing $100 weekly in strategic ways to build my nest-egg. This will require some amount of discipline to maintain this schedule however I believe is doable and easy to duplicate.

Blueprints for Success – A New Blog

When someone finds a way to produce a product or service better than other’s they create an opportunity to profit from their advantage. My past experience working as a professional engineer in a number of consulting and design firms, including my own company, have proven that these methods work. It takes time, research, trial and error, and finally reporting.

Accumulating knowledge in a book is an evolving task and takes time. As I move forward, I plan to divest to you, the reader, my methods. What I did, how it is working, and other related concerns, opportunities or just prognostications. For this I will be creating a separate yet to be named and soon to be launched blog.

The First Steps – Make a Budget

Making the decision to start investing took some time on my part. Of course budgeting was crucial and ensuring that I had a stable source of income to commence a savings and investing program. I will be able to establish more detailed plans as my investment grows.

Wallets and Exchanges

This alone is a seemingly large and complicated topic. At present I will leave out most details and explanations for later posts, focus being on getting started.

At this time I am using Coinbase as both my on-line wallet and exchange.  Eventually I will have more wallets, some online, others on my digital devices. The wallet is where individual CC’s are digitally stored. These include online wallets, wallets stored on devices such as computers and phones, and hardware wallets. More later.

I created an account and linked my bank account via a Visa/debit Card which I already obtained from my bank for online purchases. I had done this a couple of weeks prior to making my first transaction.

Transaction Details

The first transactions were two purchases where I bought $100 of Bitcoin and $100 of Ethereum. The amounts include transaction fees and worked out to purchase 0.00538 BTC and 0.05557 ETH and have been detailed as seen in the screenshot.

ScreenShot - Coinbase - 01#1141018

Figure 1. Screenshot of Coinbase Cryptocurrency Transactions 

Also shown in the activity which is a third transaction I made to acquire some mining power, where some of the recently acquired BTC were forwarded to the provider from the Coinbase wallet.

Transaction Fees

To Be Discussed (TBD).

Mining

I decided to experiment with hiring some computing power online from the cloud using the provider FFLAK. Upon registration you receive a 14 day trial and 100 Gh/s mining power to mine Bitcoin. I upgraded to add mining of Ethereum at a rate of 2 Mh/s in one transaction using $40USD of BTC, and upgraded another 2 Mh/s with $40USD of LTC. See Transaction Fees.

On the calculator provided the projected return from my initial $80 investment annually is $348 after service fees deducted which is 435%. A pretty good rate of return, worth making an initial trial investment.

ScreenShot - FFLAK ETH Calculator- 03#1141018

 

Figure 2. FFLAK Mining CC Calculator

Prior to investing, I have been experimenting with mining and faucets. Since October of last year I have been mining a pre-ICO CC using my browser. This currency uses a novel approach to mining and I have accrued over 60 tokens over the past 4 months. Visit JSECoin to learn more.

ScreenShot - JSECoin - 02#1141018

Figure 3. JSE Coin Browser Mining Program

Faucets and Games

TBD.

ICO’s – Initial Coin Offerings and Airdrops

TBD.

Cryptocurrency and Value Propositions

TBD.

Disclaimer

No guarantees or warranties are implied or expressed by the author. Risks are inherent when investing in speculative ventures, and not all information may be included when opinion based statements and projections are made. The reader is advised to perform independent due diligence.

All readers and investors are assumed to be self-governing and able to formulate their own opinions and make independent decisions. No liability will be assumed by the author, his assigns, or the corporate entities mentioned in these published articles, for any losses.

Any payments made to the author are generated by referral links. These generate a small return and is the only financial reward provided to the author. This is in return for his time and expertise spent in sharing this valuable information to you the reader. Please follow the provided links as a small, no obligation courtesy.

Referral Links:

  1. Wallet and Exchange:  Coinbase 
  2. Mining Contract:  FFLAK
  3. Browser Mining: JSECoin

 

Solar and Energy Storage Set New Lows For Electricity Price in 2017

The year started with a solar-plus-storage record: AES inked a contract for a Kauai project at 11 cents per kilowatt-hour. The facility will combine 28 megawatts of solar photovoltaic capacity with 20 megawatts of five-hour duration batteries, producing 11 percent of the island’s electricity.

That project managed to outsize an earlier Tesla/SolarCity deal on the island and shave a few cents off the unit price. In May, another project made this one look like an appetizer.

Tucson Electric Power contracted with NextEra Energy Resources to build out a major solar-plus storage project at a 20-year PPA rate below 4.5 cents per kilowatt-hour. The facility will pair 100 megawatts of solar generation with a 30 megawatt/ 120 megawatt-hour storage system. (That’s as big as the AES Escondido system, which was the largest of its kind until Tesla outdid it in Australia).

That announcement turned heads and set of a flurry of number crunching, as analysts and rivals tried to unpack how such a low price could be possible. The investment tax credit plays a role, as does NextEra’s ability to source equipment at aggressive price points.

Crucially, this is happening in sunny Arizona, where the abundance of solar generation is creating value for dispatchable power. Storage thrives when its flexibility is compensated, and Arizona’s regulated utilities can do just that.

Full Story at: top-10-energy-storage-stories-of-2017

A simple model to make sense of the proliferation of distributed ledger, smart contract and cryptocurrency projects

Richard Gendal Brown

Just when I think I understand the cryptocurrency/block chain space, I realize I didn’t understand anything at all

Four recent events have made me realize that I don’t understand this space anywhere near as well as I thought I did.   But that’s good: it means I’ve been forced to come up with a new mental model to explain to myself how all these projects relate to each other.

TL;DR: the two questions to ask about a “fiduciary code” requirement are: who do I need to trust and what am I trusting them about?

Who do I trust

A simple model to capture the essential differences between some consensus platforms

The rest of this article describes the four events that influenced me to draw it.

Event 1: Nick Szabo’s “The Dawn of Trustworthy Computing” Article

In his recent article, Nick Szabo introduces two really helpful terms to explain what makes systems like Bitcoin particularly noteworthy.

View original post 1,177 more words

UBC Report Findings Show Better Options Than Site C Dam

Keywords: UBC, Site C, Hydro, Dams, Energy, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Employment, Jobs, Environment, Sustainable, Conservation, Water, Governance, British Columbia

In a November 23 report issued “by a team of researchers led by Dr. Karen Bakker ” finds “Site C creates fewer jobs and has larger environmental impact.” (1)

“[…New Research Report: Comparative Assessment of Site C Employment (17 November 2017)

A new UBC report compares employment numbers from Site C versus the alternatives, and concludes: stopping Site C will create a larger number of sustainable jobs in the province, including in the Peace Region.

UBC’s Program on Water Governance has conducted a detailed comparison of employment generated by Site C versus the alternative portfolios put forward by BC Hydro and the BCUC.

  • Our analysis indicates that terminating Site C and pursuing the alternatives results in modest job losses in the short term, and substantial job gains in the medium and long-term.
  • These jobs are generated by remediation, conservation, and alternative energy projects.
  • Terminating Site C and pursuing any alternative portfolio creates a higher number of sustainable jobs in the province, including in the Peace Region.
  • Site C provides the least jobs per dollar spent.

…]” (1)

References:

  1. SITE C DAM

Renewable Energy and Heat Pumps – Net Zero Energy by Design

As a mechanical engineer I spent 17 years in design of mechanical systems. Always seeking the best solution given budgets and adhering to efficient design principles. Often we can combine systems by hybridization, where two technologies come together in a synergistic match. I have used hybrid technologies, using ground loops and air-air fluid coolers, with heat pumps successfully in the mechanical design and construction of a number of buildings.

While wind energy may be harvested, it is not always available. Some regions get more wind than others, and there may be governmental or civic restrictions. For renewable energy, solar may be a better option than wind, even though it is only available during the day. In either case some form of auxiliary power will be required, such as batteries,  grid connection, fuel powered generator, or hydro-power.

The use of heat pumps allows for the provision of a number of heating and cooling devices which may be connected to a central circulating building loop. As heat pumps have operating temperatures generally between 40F to 90F, although it may vary depending on heat energy source, such as air, water or ground.  Air temperatures may vary during the day and season. As air temperature drops, heat pumps lose efficiency. We can see this in the following figure. (1)

air-source-heat-pumps-cold-weather

In the case of geothermal heat pump system design, there are some options. One method is to run a water source such as a pond, river, body of water in an open loop design,  in a closed loop method using an process waste heat stream or ground coupled system. Either system is usually connected to a heat-exchanger to which is connected a second closed house loop. The house loop is controlled to either discharge or gain heat from the geothermal loop.

I am attaching  a blog post (2) from 2007 where I made a comment in 2009. This blog post is still getting comments. I believe such systems can be designed and constructed and would contribute to a “Net-Zero” building systems.

I am a lawyer who has been interested in the subject of energy conservation since the seventies. Back when we had the first OPEC crisis, I thought this country would head in a direction away from the consumption of huge quantities of oil and gas. It didn’t happen. Now of course, our thirst for oil has been the primary reason for a preemptive war with no end in sight. Moreover, peak oil seems to be here. And so far nothing much seems to have changed. But the public, may at last be ready for something different.

There are some real promising things happening with new solar energy systems and with wind turbines. It is long past due. But I still keep wondering whether we are approaching this problem of solving our energy demands the right way. With both solar and wind systems all technology seems to be headed toward the creation of electricity. Electricity is definitely useful but often inefficient.

Heating and cooling costs are about 60-70 percent of home energy costs. It is far more cost effective to use heat transfer than to make heat. Water source heat pumps are 300-400 percent efficient while the best ordinary HVAC systems might be forty percent efficient. (Are they that much?) What if you could even vastly surpass the efficiency of a water source heat pump. How? By making the wind pump the water instead of an electric pump.

Why not use wind to its best advantage? Make the wind do what it has done very efficiently for hundreds of years: pump water. Make it pump water from a warm place to a cold place and make it store the heat where the heat is needed or wanted. In the winter pump the heat from under the ground into the house. In the summer pump the heat from house into the ground.

To do this, because of the wind’s variability, one would need a huge (?) thermal sink in the house to slowly release the heat transferred from underground to the heat sink or to transfer the heat from the house to the ground while the wind was not blowing.

A four part system. A wind turbine. A pump. A closed loop of pipe. An interior thermal sink.

It is fairly well known that in most climates, five or six feet below ground, the temperature is a about 55 degrees. I think it is quite possible to take advantage of the geothermal underground temperature by using a wind turbine to pump water from underground into an interior thermal sink. If a large enough volume of water could be circulated to where the interior heat sink reached 55 degrees, I think such a home’s heating and cooling costs would be drastically reduced.

If the large thermal sink could get the house temperature substantially raised in the winter and substantially cooled in the summer, very little additional energy might be required to bring it to a desirable temperature with the use of a water source heat pump. A water source heat pump would work in tandem very well by using the internal heat sink as a convenient source to operate a water source heat pump.

My idea would be to use a vertical wind turbine on the roof coupled to an Archimedes screw to pumps and circulates water through the closed loop. The vertical wind turbines seem to need less wind, have more torque, and are quieter. I also think that from an architectural point of view, they would look much more attractive, especially the ones that look like spinnerets. They also take advantage of a sloping roof which increases wind speed.

I also think the Archimedes screw would be an ideal pump. It requires no gears or lubrication and could attach by a straight shaft to the vertical wind turbine. An Archimedes screw would be very inexpensive as pumping systems go and extremely reliable as there is really nothing to break.

I have other ideas about roof design and about turbine design for greater efficiency. I also have ideas about the plumbing. What I would like to see is whether there are people out there who think this idea has commercial merit and if so, how we might go about making wind driven water pumping for geothermal transfer a success. We would need some engineering and architectural expertise and some ability to fabricate the wind turbines and pumps.

I look forward to responses.

Duane Tilden said…

I have been looking at the latest responses and it seems to me there is some confusion about this idea.

Firstly, heat pump technology, as pointed out achieves it’s high COP’s from the phase change. It is through the leveraging of the refrigerant phase change from a fluid to the gas phase where heat energy can be obtained from low temperature heat sources. This is how geothermal heat pumps can obtain heat energy from relatively low temp sources such as the ground where nominal ambient water temp would be at 55F and deliver hot water at temps of 90F to 140F.

Alternatively heat pumps can be used in air/air, air/water, water/air and water/water configurations. These are generally stand alone devices where in a properly engineered installation do not require supplemental heat sources.

Wind energy is a separate sustainable, environmentally friendly application. In my opinion the OP’s idea of using wind energy to move water around for a heat pump application is marginal and likely too capital intensive to realize any real benefit. Also, it is just too restrictive, in my opinion.

Wind energy converted directly to electricity, or other dedicated pumping applications where electricity is not available is best (water pumping up to a reservoir in agricultural or power generation schemes for example). There also may be some merit to the idea of storing the energy as compressed air, but the amount of heat generated would not be significant, usable heat source. Try heating your home with a candle.

Electricity is used by a wide range of applications, so why not use the wind energy to best effectiveness? The operation of the compressor in the heat pump and the pumps to run the water loop(s) require electricity, so do common home appliances.

There may be some applications where the proffered idea would make sense, but not likely widely applicable for single family residences unless you have a large property and money to burn.

SEPTEMBER 26, 2009 AT 10:44 PM

 

References:

  1. heat-pump-effective-temperature-range/
  2. wind-turbine-heat-pump-geothermal

Hybrid Electric Bus uses Hydrogen as Fuel

“[…] According to Paulo Emilio, this is the most efficient hydrogen bus in the world. “A European company tested a hydrogen bus in ten cities, which consumed 25 kilos of hydrogen for each 100 kilometers; this month, the same company launched an improved version, with 14 kilos of hydrogen consumed for each 100 kilometers” where as “our bus consumes just 5 kilos of hydrogen”, he says. […]”

via Literally, a green bus

Are Cryptocurrencies a Fad or a Revolution in Finance?

Duane M. Tilden, P.Eng
November 5, 2017

As I was walking to my weekly bridge game at the local club, I was pondering my newfound interest in cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Ethereum, the block chain, and related topics such as mining, smart contracts, ICO’s; the list goes on. I also thought about the value of things from my childhood, like marbles, hockey and baseball trading cards, comic books, coins, stamps, post cards, and other things that I have collected. All which created markets and gained extrinsic value over time, and could be held speculatively. I then asked myself, “Are cryptocurrencies a passing  fad or here to stay?”

What Makes a Currency Valuable?

Some things, such as coins may be made of a valuable base metal alloy, like gold, silver, nickel and copper. Coins are currency, and as such a perfect example to assessing intrinsic value and extrinsic value. In the past coins were minted with higher contents of the base metal alloys.  The metal content gave them an intrinsic value due to the metals rarity and utility. In time, these metals gained value, to the point where it cost more to mint a coin than it was worth.  People would then begin to horde or “mine” the coin for its intrinsic value which was greater than it’s face value as a currency.

metcalfe_curve

Figure 1. The Metcalfe Curve (1)

Extrinsic value, however, could be likened to what we would consider the “fiat” aspect of a currency. As currencies have moved away from a gold or silver standard, the value of money is largely based on consensus. Markets are also consensus driven, without a universal agreement or set of rules, there could not be trade. This is the reason for the development for money or currency. I work and get paid in the common unit of currency, which I can then use to buy and rent goods and services.

Currency and Security

Until recent developments, Governments and their agencies in partnership with banking institutions have generally controlled currency and financial markets. The operation of the economy is the basis upon which society functions. Money exchanges hands for goods and services, including wages. One currency usually denominates value in a physical market. However, these markets can be subject to various forms of attack or manipulation. Physical money could be counterfeited, transfer of money and assets could be lost or stolen, other forms of fraud could occur where one loses their assets.

Another form of attack is personal, or on the individual. Local regulations and taxation laws require valuation of assets and income which are held by the individual to be known to the public agency and could be subject to economic deprivation and restrictions. This is an instance where individual privacy is violated in built-in, systemic and semi-transparent.

Examples of this are everywhere, such as income tax, sales tax, medical tax, alimony and child-support, retirement and pension plans, insurance. If you owe the government money in a disputed case, they often will violate an individuals rights to deprive them of assets, such as money in bank accounts, garnishee of wages directly from the employer, denial of services, loss of principal residence and other such actions.

Most of the money that we earn, own, or spend is being tracked by the government. There are lots of taxes and lots of “rules” made by the big boys. Unfortunately, the present financial system is often disadvantaging us. Why? Because it often collects more than it provides. (2)

Consensus and Fiat Money

Since a currency in today’s world generally consists of a consensus agreeing in a trading market place, then the truth is anything can have value. As the internet has opened up trading across international borders, and companies have sprung up in the financial market place to provide services beyond their physical location, often catering to the world. I can purchase electronics from China and have them delivered to Canada on eBay, using PayPal or a credit card to exchange in their accepted currency. Buy and sell ads have sprung up, such as Craigslist and Kijiji , allowing wider ranging access to markets at a greatly reduced costs as compared to paper advertising in magazines.

Computer users over time had an edge over non-users, as information became available in a vast manner over greater areas. Shopping for the best price of a desired item, good or service can be searched for on my laptop and obtained at a fair cost. No longer does one have to go out and purchase a paper magazine or ad book, in their search. We now can now open a browser on our computer, or digital device, ask a question on a search engine and sort through a selection of answers. Phone numbers, addresses, reviews, prices, hours of operation, names of staff, job openings and more information is all available quickly and efficiently.

Enter the Bitcoin, blockchains and crypto-currencies. In one report recently obtained, sourced from the international Engineering Firm ARUP (2) it has been stated about Bitcoin, a technology introduced by Satoshi Nakomoto.

At the start of 2009,when the world was in the middle of a major financial crisis, a paradigm shift in technology quietly made its debut. That technology is called Bitcoin, and it’s the biggest innovation in finance in 500 years, and certainly the greatest invention of the 21st century so far. (3)

Cryptocurrencies Create Markets

Beyond creating an anonymous system of financial transactions and storage, crypto-currencies are creating new markets of value and trade. There has been a recent wave of new crypto-currencies coming on the market, most of which have issued whitepapers, and have sales landing pages which outline the details about structure, their markets or business plan, how to participate, and their projected timeline.

In my opinion, issuing tokens for sale is very similar to crowd-funding, which may also be likened to buying or selling shares on the stock market, without the restrictions or regulations necessarily placed on participants. Whether or not these activities are legal may depend on local jurisdictions. However, as long as no laws are broken for the purposes of making transactions in a business manner, or the proposed ecosystem,  then personal privacy of participants and security should be secured to all qualified participants, which are traits of a crypto-currency like the original Bitcoin.

The tokens offered in the pre-ICO sales are generally intended to fund the business operations, which, if all goes well, will turn a profit and be able to provide token based services. Details of the venture and how proceeds from projected profits are to be distributed are usually outlined in the white paper. Tokens may be able to be openly traded as a currency, depending on various applicable rules and regulations which may apply and being able to be listed on the various exchanges.

For example a current energy token on the market, PowerLedger.io (4) –  is a blockchain-based peer-to-peer energy trading platform enabling consumers and businesses to sell their surplus solar power to their neighbours without a middleman.

<From a Media Press Release>  Power Ledger is based in Perth and uses blockchain technology to allow households to trade excess solar power over the electricity network.

Major Australian power retailer Origin Energy recently announced a three-month trial with Power Ledger to explore the benefits and challenges of peer-to-peer energy trading across a regulated network.

“Blockchain technology and cryptocurrency underpins our business offering and we are excited to be working with Perth-based DigitalX” said Power Ledger Chair Dr Jemma Green.

POWR tokens will be offered via the Ethereum cryptocurrency network in an uncapped price offer, meaning the tokens’ final price will be determined by the market demand.

“POWR will be the Ethereum blockchain protocol token required throughout the Power Ledger eco-system that can be converted to ‘Sparkz’, which is the crypto-currency we have set up for users to trade electricity using the platform,” said Dr Green.

As part of the engagement,DigitalX will introduce cryptocurrency investors to Power Ledger in exchange for a fee which consists of a mix of Ether (ETH) and POWR tokens.

“Blockchain-enabled innovation is disrupting traditional industries and digital currency is changing the way companies access capital. DigitalX is pleased to be able to facilitate this quantum shift in traditional mechanisms for accessing funding,” said Mr Travers.  (5)

Generally speaking, however, most crypto-currencies will have many advantages over fiat currency or stock markets. For one, their trade is not restricted to one market, or country to operate. Beyond anonymity one can store value in one token, exchange it for another, buy services on a network, or hold it speculatively. There are the other aspects related to smart contracts and the block-chain where physical assets or other attributes, such as counting operations of a machine or device can be linked to a token. In fact the possibilities seem endless, only bounded by the limits of imagination.

Cryptocurrency Offerings and Exchanges

Every day I receive more notifications regarding new offerings on a multiple of news feeds. Many of these offerings look good and viable. There are many new white-papers to read, and some are quite technically advanced and detailed in outlook and projections. As more cryptocurrencies are introduced into markets and traded on platforms investments will be expected to continue.

As cryptocurrencies are rapidly gaining acceptance and appeal, the task of evaluating all emerging offerings would be odious without methods of categorization, comparison and establishing legitimacy. At this time, according to the coinmarketcap.com, there are 1257 Cryptocurrencies with a total market cap of $199 Billion USD currently listed on exchanges. Currently there are 121 active exchanges trading cryptocurrencies (5) and in the last 24 hours there was a “volume of 614,489 BTC and $4,396,051,516 on 5915 trading pairs” (6).

Other resources of current token or coin offerings and other related information can be found on various websites, including tokenmarket.net and coinranking.com.

The Future of Cryptocurrency

At the current pace of innovation, new offerings, and investment as determined by market capitalization, it does not appear that current rapid growth in cryptocurrencies  slow down. Rather, examining current trends in cryptocurrency and comparing to models, it appears that we are in the innovation and early adoption phases of a technological innovation, as seen in figure 2. (7)

TechAdoptCurve2

Figure 2. Technological Adoption Curve (7)

In addition to the known bell curve of adoption, the value of the networks being formed on the internet, obeys Metcalfe’s law, see figure 1.

Metcalfe’s law states that the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2).

As we can surmise from the effect of Metcalfe’s law as it applies to the development of cryptocurrencies is that we are currently in the earlier phases of value development, which will be expected to grow at an exponential rate associated with a nodal peer to peer model.

220px-Metcalfe-Network-Effect.svg

Two telephones can make only one connection, five can make 10 connections, and twelve can make 66 connections.

For innovators and early adopters these are exciting times as the number of participants continue to grow, and more capital continues to be invested in fledgling commercial enterprises. New business plans for ICO and Token issues are being issued every day. There are technical developments coming, apps, games, lenders and financial instruments, as well as new types of Tokens being issued with a variety of proof’s or calculation methods. Blockchains technology is changing to become increasingly efficient to handle ever increasing numbers of transactions. At this time there appears to be no limit to the possible applications of blockchain technology.

combined_curve

Figure 3. Combined Curve – Crossing the Chasm (1)

[…] The combination of Moore’s and Metcalfe’s laws explains the rise of information technology and the growth of the Internet as we know it today. […] And finally, in an unprecedented apotheosis, by combining the three preceding charts and by ― I have to admit ― visually cheating with axes, scales, and representations I came to the observation that the chasm is actually the point where the transition from a technology driven business to a value driven business needs to take place ― and if this doesn’t happen, that any new product or technology introduction is doomed to fail.

Disclaimers:

Expect that there are traps and pitfalls, some ventures may be fraudulent or simply fail. No guarantees on individual outcomes of ICO’s or other value propositions, and, as in all markets expect that there will be both successes and failures.

Expect, in various regions, government control and regulation, which may attempt to prevent or limit participation by populations or otherwise affect and manipulate markets.

Every participant in any new market, such as a cryptocurrency,  is advised to perform their own due diligence and research before investing capital.

No guarantees or warrantees are implied or expressed by the author, who, may at any time, hold vested interests in a variety of cryptocurrency tokens for speculation or other purposes.

End

References

  1. The Metcalfe Curve
  2. 7 Trends in Cryptocurrency Entrepreneurs Should Know
  3. Blockchain-Technology (for the Built Environment)
  4. How PowerLedger Works -Snapshot
  5. PowerLedger.io Home Page
  6. cryptocoincharts.info
  7. The Early Days of Cryptocurrency