Cryptocurrency Weekly Market Cap Analysis and Forecast: Issue #1

Author: Duane M. Tilden, P.Eng.

Report Period: April 19th to 23rd, 2018

Disclaimer: The author is an active trader in cryptocurrencies and may have variable holdings in some or all digital assets reviewed. Trading and investing in cryptocurrency markets is considered a high risk venture and requires analysis, due diligence and patience. No guarantees on outcomes are offered or implied, market performance may change due to unforeseen events which may alter market participation. The analysis and subsequent forecast are “best guesses” or opinions based on information reviewed and methodology of examination and therefore may be subject to change.

Foreword

At this time I am planning to issue a weekly report and analysis. The reader is encouraged to read the analysis and familiarize themselves with terminology, cryptocurrencies and markets. Links, where deemed necessary will be included for reference and clarity. 

Purpose

The purpose of this ongoing blog is to develop and examine data in a scientific and methodical manner using a variety of tools to understand the movement of capital and price fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market. The cryptocurrency market is well known to be subject to volatility and can move quickly. To maximize profits a trader needs to have information into market movements which can be verified by various means of inquiry.

We will discuss these changes and explore the underlying causes. Forecasts made are our hypothesis or “best guess” and will be the basis of a Trading Plan.  Changes in holdings or planned capital investments may be made to adjust holdings to the forecast.  After the week we can review the results to determine how accurate our model and forecasts have been, and any required refinements.

Empowered with these tools it is hoped that those desiring to trade in these markets will be able to better evaluate portfolios and individual holdings to make buy, sell and/or hold decisions.

Weekly Analysis of Market

A. Total Market Cap

Using the tools we have developed to date let us continue with analyzing the cryptocurrency trading market using data from the past week. We seek to establish trends and using this information to forecast probable outcomes in the week ahead. To start lets take a look at the Total Market Cap (TMC) for the past week to spot the trends and chart data for further analysis. Total Crypto Market Cap April 16 to 23 2018

Total Crypto Market Cap April 16 to 23 2018 #2

Figure 1: Cryptocurrency TMC Weekly Graph of April 16 to 23rd, 2018

We can see that the overall trend for the week has been steadily increasing with a short dip on April 21st. TMC increased by $78 Billion from $322 to $400 bn for a weekly increase of 24.2%. Daily volume has increased by $7bn from $15.5 to $22.5 bn for a 45% gain over the week.Total Crypto Market Cap Mar 23 to Apr 23 2018 #1.png

Figure 2: Cryptocurrency TMC 30 Day Graph – March 23 to April 23rd, 2018

This is continuing the reported upward trend from last that started on Monday April 9th where TMC was above $250 bn moving to April 12th where TMC started at $275 bn and rose by $25 bn in under one hour to $300 Billion. Daily volume peaked on April 13th to over $27 Billion traded in 24 hours. The two week change in TMC is $150 bn from $250 to $400 bn, for a 60% gain with an average rate of increase $10.7 bn/day or 7.13%.

B. Analysis of the Top 25 Cryptocurrencies by Market Cap and Price

TMC Top 25 Cryptocurrencies April 19 to 23 2018

Figure 3: TMC and Dominance of Top 25 Cryptocurrencies; April 19 to 23rd, 2018

A spreadsheet has been created to examine a variety of components of market capitalization, pricing and dominance and their variance over time. Where there are significant changes from the norm we can look for reasons to understand individual price changes and capital movement.

C. Variation in Dominance as a Predictive Indicator

The use of a dominance factor gives us an indication of the overall contribution to the TMC of an individual cryptocurrency coin or token. When this factor changes significantly over a measured period of time we may observe movements in price or MC which stand out from the overall market average.

From the period examined we have the following predictions for the upcoming week based on variance on dominance. Dominance indicates a current established trend in buying or selling. Where dominance is high and positive then for a fixed supply MC and Price will rise, and when high and negative the converse is true, that the cryptocurrency MC and Price are in a decline in value.

Caution is the word; not all declines in dominance are bad nor increases necessarily good. Sometimes when a market has moved too far in one direction a market correction may be in order and short term changes in dominance may indicate a correction. Increases in dominance should be examined for underlying cause for the cryptocurrency to gain popularity in the market.

Be aware, there are pump and dump schemes which can run up values in MC and Price for a short term while the architects of these manipulation activities profit. Generally speaking the organizers target obscure coins and tokens held on certain exchanges. Due to size and wide distribution the top 25 cryptocurrencies are considered safer from influence and price manipulation, although not immune.

In future articles I plan on performing more detailed examination of results and expand predictions or forecasts to include possible future outcomes as well as explore underlying causes to individual price movements.

Recommendations:

Top pick for the week is Bitcoin Cash.

Top 5: Buy or Hold

  1. Bitcoin Cash variance in dominance increased by 28.30 %
  2. IOTA variance in dominance increased by 7.94 %
  3. Monero variance in dominance increased by 5.51 %
  4. Ripple variance in dominance increased by 5.08 %
  5. Bitcoin Gold variance in dominance increased by 4.83 %

Bottom 5: Sell or Hold

  1.  Qtum variance in dominance decreased by -13.24 %
  2.  Tether variance in dominance decreased by -11.27 %
  3.  OmiseGo variance in dominance decreased by -10.96 %
  4.  Stellar variance in dominance decreased by -8.90 %
  5.  NEO variance in dominance decreased by -8.14 %

 

 

 

 

 

 

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How to Invest in CryptoCurrency – A Guide for Everyone

Of the many and diverse interests of mine, I include the emerging technology and upcoming revolution in finance, the CryptoCurrency [CC], Smart Contracts [SC] and the BlockChain [BC]. This makes sense as it fits in well with my technological background and interest in all things internet and information technology.

My first experiences with CC’s go back to 2012 when I was first looking at Bitcoin. I was interested in mining and how the various video cards of the day would perform to mine the BTC. Unfortunately, beyond doing some initial research and some trials with faucets in 2014, I did not invest early in Crypto. Some of the early amounts were still in present in my wallet and the small amount had grown considerably even left alone, from about $1 to $20 in a couple of years. This is shown in my current balance below.

Yesterday, January 13th 2018 marks a first. The day I spent my money on cryptocurrencies online and put myself at risk, and this is after much careful deliberation. I am starting with $200 (Canadian Dollars) with a plan of  investing $100 weekly in strategic ways to build my nest-egg. This will require some amount of discipline to maintain this schedule however I believe is doable and easy to duplicate.

Blueprints for Success – A New Blog

When someone finds a way to produce a product or service better than other’s they create an opportunity to profit from their advantage. My past experience working as a professional engineer in a number of consulting and design firms, including my own company, have proven that these methods work. It takes time, research, trial and error, and finally reporting.

Accumulating knowledge in a book is an evolving task and takes time. As I move forward, I plan to divest to you, the reader, my methods. What I did, how it is working, and other related concerns, opportunities or just prognostications. For this I will be creating a separate yet to be named and soon to be launched blog.

The First Steps – Make a Budget

Making the decision to start investing took some time on my part. Of course budgeting was crucial and ensuring that I had a stable source of income to commence a savings and investing program. I will be able to establish more detailed plans as my investment grows.

Wallets and Exchanges

This alone is a seemingly large and complicated topic. At present I will leave out most details and explanations for later posts, focus being on getting started.

At this time I am using Coinbase as both my on-line wallet and exchange.  Eventually I will have more wallets, some online, others on my digital devices. The wallet is where individual CC’s are digitally stored. These include online wallets, wallets stored on devices such as computers and phones, and hardware wallets. More later.

I created an account and linked my bank account via a Visa/debit Card which I already obtained from my bank for online purchases. I had done this a couple of weeks prior to making my first transaction.

Transaction Details

The first transactions were two purchases where I bought $100 of Bitcoin and $100 of Ethereum. The amounts include transaction fees and worked out to purchase 0.00538 BTC and 0.05557 ETH and have been detailed as seen in the screenshot.

ScreenShot - Coinbase - 01#1141018

Figure 1. Screenshot of Coinbase Cryptocurrency Transactions 

Also shown in the activity which is a third transaction I made to acquire some mining power, where some of the recently acquired BTC were forwarded to the provider from the Coinbase wallet.

Transaction Fees

To Be Discussed (TBD).

Mining

I decided to experiment with hiring some computing power online from the cloud using the provider FFLAK. Upon registration you receive a 14 day trial and 100 Gh/s mining power to mine Bitcoin. I upgraded to add mining of Ethereum at a rate of 2 Mh/s in one transaction using $40USD of BTC, and upgraded another 2 Mh/s with $40USD of LTC. See Transaction Fees.

On the calculator provided the projected return from my initial $80 investment annually is $348 after service fees deducted which is 435%. A pretty good rate of return, worth making an initial trial investment.

ScreenShot - FFLAK ETH Calculator- 03#1141018

 

Figure 2. FFLAK Mining CC Calculator

Prior to investing, I have been experimenting with mining and faucets. Since October of last year I have been mining a pre-ICO CC using my browser. This currency uses a novel approach to mining and I have accrued over 60 tokens over the past 4 months. Visit JSECoin to learn more.

ScreenShot - JSECoin - 02#1141018

Figure 3. JSE Coin Browser Mining Program

Faucets and Games

TBD.

ICO’s – Initial Coin Offerings and Airdrops

TBD.

Cryptocurrency and Value Propositions

TBD.

Disclaimer

No guarantees or warranties are implied or expressed by the author. Risks are inherent when investing in speculative ventures, and not all information may be included when opinion based statements and projections are made. The reader is advised to perform independent due diligence.

All readers and investors are assumed to be self-governing and able to formulate their own opinions and make independent decisions. No liability will be assumed by the author, his assigns, or the corporate entities mentioned in these published articles, for any losses.

Any payments made to the author are generated by referral links. These generate a small return and is the only financial reward provided to the author. This is in return for his time and expertise spent in sharing this valuable information to you the reader. Please follow the provided links as a small, no obligation courtesy.

Referral Links:

  1. Wallet and Exchange:  Coinbase 
  2. Mining Contract:  FFLAK
  3. Browser Mining: JSECoin

 

Hoax AP White House tweet tests firms scouring social media | Investing | Financial Post

See on Scoop.itTwitter & Social Media

A tweet reporting explosions at the White House appeared on the Associated Press’s official feed Tuesday afternoon, sparking a temporary sell-off that briefly wiped out about US$140 billion in market value on the S&P 500.

Duane Tilden‘s insight:

Tuesday’s fateful tweet appeared at 1:07 p.m. EDT. It was picked up almost immediately by investors and analytic companies scanning Twitter for key words to determine breaking news or measure sentiment. Stocks and commodities moved sharply lower and bond prices soared.

Within minutes, analytics firm Dataminr issued an alert saying the AP account was probably hacked, citing another tweet by a reporter in the White House basement.

“We see this every time this type of news comes out: liquidity evaporates quickly. High-frequency traders cancel their orders on even one little tweet,” said Dennis Dick, a trader at Bright Trading LLC in Las Vegas.  Freeling-Wilkinson said analytics firms like his are more interested in looking at trends than individual tweets.  “I would never recommend that anyone trades on a single tweet,” he said.

See on business.financialpost.com

There’s cash in that trash

See on Scoop.itGreen & Sustainable News

There could be big bucks in waste disposal and management, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch figures.

Duane Tilden‘s insight:

Lets look at some of the opportunities BofA/ML has identified:

– Disposal and recycling of municipal solid waste (rubbish, in common parlance) is currently worth $400 billion but over the next decade,  $87 billion in investments are expected in this sector.

– Waste-to-energy (energy recovery from waste): One ton of rubbish can create 500-750 kilowatts of power. This market is worth $7.4 billion in 2013 and  could grow to $81 billion by 2022.

– Sustainable packaging: Accounts for a third of solid waste in developed countries. Worth almost $109 billion in 2011, the market is expected to grow to $178-212 billion by 2015-18.

– e-waste (discarded electrical or electronic devices):  Recycling/reuse of e-waste components was worth $13.9 billion in 2012 but could grow to between $25 and 44.3 billion by 2017-20. One example of how lucrative this can be – -recycling one million mobile phones can recover 24 kg of gold, 250 kg of silver and more than 9,000 kg of copper.

Wastewater and sewage treatment:  The biggest investments are needed in the developing world but in the United States alone, infrastructure of $1 trillion could be needed over the next 25 years, BofA says, citing research from the American Waterworks Association.

See on blogs.reuters.com

Financial Advisors Are Adopting Social Media, Fitfully – Forbes

See on Scoop.itTwitter & Social Media

Active social media strategies are proving profitable for financial advisors.

Duane Tilden‘s insight:

Alex Pigliucci, global managing director of Accenture wealth management services, said  social media creates a huge opportunity for firms that get it right and a real risk for firms that regard it mostly as a threat. Firms will have to recruit and train advisors on the basis of their ability with social media if they are going to survive the generational change when millennials will become increasingly important as both advisors and investors.

See on www.forbes.com

SEC Allows Companies To Announce News To Investors Through Facebook – AllFacebook

See on Scoop.itTwitter & Social Media

Soon, investors will be able to learn more about companies in the same space where they play Candy Crush Saga. The Securities and Exchange Commission declared Tuesday that companies can notify their investors of news through Facebook and Twitter.

Duane Tilden‘s insight:

George Canellos, acting director of the SEC’s division of enforcement, commented on this new development in a press release:

One set of shareholders should not be able to get a jump on other shareholders just because the company is selectively disclosing important information. Most social media are perfectly suitable methods for communicating with investors, but not if the access is restricted or if investors don’t know that’s where they need to turn to get the latest news.

What brought about this decision was a post on the …

See on allfacebook.com