Lord Lawson is calling for an independent review of the UK’s official climate predictions as he claims the model used to make the projections is “flawed”. Based on research published …
Duane Tilden‘s insight:
>The thinktank claims predictions made by it will “always produce high estimates of future warming” regardless of the data fed into the process.
The HadCM3 model is used for official UK Climate Projections (UKCP09), which provide information to help plan how to adapt to a changing climate. It generates a virtual representation of the global climate such as the greenhouse effect, evaporation of the oceans, rainfall and sunlight. By increasing the greenhouse gases in the model, predictions on how much warmer the planet will become in the future can be made.
The UK’s climate model is also used to help make investment decisions across the public and private sectors and as estimates of future warming generated by the Government’s model are “much higher than those implied by several recent studies”, they are likely to “lead to considerable malinvestments” of public and private funds, GWPF claims.
Andrew Montford, author of the GWPF briefing paper said: “There are potentially billions of pounds being misspent on the basis of these predictions. The Government has little choice but to withdraw them pending a review of the way they are put together.”
The Met Office defended its methods and rubbished the criticism.
The organisation said in a statement: “UKCP09 used a sophisticated method that used both model projections and observations to provide a range of potential future warming which attempts to take in the uncertainties in model parameters. The GWPF article fails to note that UKCP09 also used information from many other climate models and that the projections were independently reviewed prior to publication.”<
Under current trajectories, the world is headed toward a world that will be 4 degrees warmer by the end of this century.
Duane Tilden‘s insight:
>[…] However, as we try to show in our recent publication, Growing Green: the Economic Benefits of Climate Action, strategic investment in climate action can benefit these countries in the medium- and long-terms – thus offsetting the negative consequences of these investments.
Above all, countries need to focus on three types of climate action: climate action as aco-benefit, climate action as an investment, and climate action as insurance.
This first area of climate action is simply a co-benefit of policies that make sense even if we were not concerned about climate change. These are things like supporting energy efficiency investments or restoring degraded soils to make agriculture more productive (while also increasing carbon storage in soils).
The second area is what we call climate action as an investment. This gets at the issue of how countries can benefit from greening their economies – doing well by doing good. What we have seen in the last few years is that new firms emerge in countries that have implemented ambitious green policies early and take advantage of the economic opportunities that have sprung from these policies. […]<
Deep problems in Europe’s carbon trading scheme – its flagship climate change policy – are set to cancel out over 700m tonnes of emissions saved through renewable energy and energy efficiency efforts, according to a new report.
The study, by carbon trading thinktank Sandbag, found that a huge oversupply of carbon pollution permits means many are being banked to enable emissions after 2020, when efforts to tackle global warming should be intensifying. These emissions, nearly equivalent to Germany’s annual carbon pollution, will cancel out efforts made in other areas to cut carbon.
The report also warns that Europe’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) is a “global dumping ground” for “dubious” carbon permits created by projects around the world.