Indexes like Klout and Kred that are trying to prop up that idea are desperately trying to retro-fit more and more sources of social data to keep, well, their cred intact.  But according to Pente they have the problem exactly backwards: it’s not the “influencer” who changes behavior, it’s much more about the message–and the recipient.

Their statistical analysis indicates that the influence score accounted for only 3% of the variation in response. […]

Instead, consumers are more prone to react positively if a relevant message is received in a certain format (“News you Can Use,” for example) at certain times of the day when the level of engagement with a particular device is optimal (smart phones during the day, tablets in the evenings.)

We want to leave the idea of “sender” as influence,” says Klepic. “The mere fact that someone sends a message is too simplistic in social media. Just cause a message goes out in the “ether” doesn’t mean it has any impact at all. It is just broadcast.”