>The fact that temperatures have risen more slowly in the past 15 years despite rising emissions of greenhouse gases has emboldened sceptics who challenge the evidence for man-made climate change and question the need for urgent action.

But the IPCC draft reports do not project any long-term respite. Instead, they forecast a resumption in the warming trend that is likely to cause ever more heatwaves, droughts, floods and rising sea levels. […]

“There are a number of explanations (for the hiatus), any one of which might be correct,” said professor Myles Allen of Oxford University, who contributed to the IPCC draft. “That is very different from saying:’We have no idea what’s going on’.”

The drafts say that a reduction in warming for 1998-2012 compared to 1951-2012 is “due in roughly equal measure” to natural variations in the climate and factors such as “volcanic eruptions and the downward phase of the current solar cycle.”<